940
FXUS61 KBUF 161734
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
134 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
MID-WEEK BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING, REACHING WESTERN
NEW YORK EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED STORMS TO FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ARRIVAL TIME AFTER 3 AM.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY AS A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW BUILDS BACK OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. PROGRESSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE A SIMILAR ESE
TRACK IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, ENSURING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING. POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL CONTINUE TO KNOCK
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY DOWN AS WELL, WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND
50S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY MANAGE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER
70S IN MOST SPOTS.
WHILE THE COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK, THE AREAWIDE
DRY STRETCH WILL ACTUALLY BE SHORT-LIVED FOR ONCE AS A BROAD,
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE INTERACTING WITH T.C. ERIN WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RAMP UP FROM WNW TO ESE
STARTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
SPREAD INTO THE REGION, THEN PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF IN A SIMILAR FASHION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT.
OUTSIDE OF SOME ADDED LIFT FROM A NEARBY EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 90KT 250MB JET DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, OTHERWISE POOR SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL RELIEF
FROM THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
RAINFALL >1" TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE ONLY ABOUT
15-25% WHERE D0 OR D1 CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST, THOUGH THERE ARE
NOTABLY SOME AREAS OF 30-40% IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK, ANOTHER FLATTENING RIDGE WITH NE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AGAIN BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY. A WEDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SETTLING SE AND OFF
THE EAST COAST IN THE WAKE OF T.C ERIN'S REMNANTS WILL CAUSE A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH A DAY-TO-DAY WARMING TREND
BACK TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. LOW-END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT (AFTER
08Z) WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO LOW-END VFR TO MVFR SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF/LOCAL CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...VFR.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL INCREASE ON BOTH LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS, HIGHEST ON LAKE
ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON LAKE
ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ON LAKE ERIE WEST
OF DUNKIRK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HSK/TMA
NEAR TERM...HSK/TMA
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...HSK/TMA
MARINE...TMA
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