735
FXUS61 KBUF 171625
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1225 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK BRINGING A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE REDEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. HEATING WILL
LIKELY BRING AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, A COOL, DRY NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TO THE
50S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
AN AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL
BRING A FAIR AND COOLER DAY MONDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S, WITH SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, GUIDANCE STARTS TO INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THERE STILL REMAINS A
LARGE SPREAD IN COVERAGE AND OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. WITH
THIS IN MIND, LIMITING POPS TO LOWER END CHANCE FOR NOW, WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE WNY AREA
TUESDAY EVENING AND EXPAND EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE DRIER THAN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THE DRIER TREND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ONLY GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AT THIS POINT, UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE WEDNESDAY RAIN
POTENTIAL AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE MONITORED.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILAR
TO MONDAYS VALUES FROM NEAR 70 TO THE UPPER 70S. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUSH OUT FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES BUILDS
EAST TO THE COAST THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A SFC LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL
APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE COLD FRONT CROSSING SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A BIT SPLIT ON HOW QUICKLY SHOWERS MOVE OUT
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A LINGERING TROUGH
CONTINUING THE SHOWER POTENTIAL WITH SOME OF THE MODELS.
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL WARM THROUGH
SATURDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH,
AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST GRAIDENT FLOW MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, WITH LOW
(10-20%) CONFIDENCE IN ANY RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS, HIGHEST ON LAKE ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT ON LAKE ERIE WEST OF DUNKIRK THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AND ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MONDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ003>006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM
EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
SYNOPSIS...HSK/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...HSK/TMA
MARINE...HSK/TMA
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