409
FXUS61 KBUF 190530
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
130 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE MID WEEK, AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S, WITH SOME 40S FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER LATE IN THE DAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
REGION. THE FLOW COMING AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WILL
BRING AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
INCOMING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE WAVE WILL INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IMPROVING MOISTURE AXIS ALONG
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK MUTED, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, BASIN AVERAGES
GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
A TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER. THIS RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
TIMING IS LOW, BUT THE GREATEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD
DAYTIME READINGS IN THE 80S, WITH A NOTABLE COOL DOWN BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH HIGHS BY MONDAY 65 TO 75. 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY
GET COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME WEST OR NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
RESPONSE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IR SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH CIRRUS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVER FAR SOUTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE FLIGHT CONDITIONS BECOME
MVFR OR BELOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO AN OFFSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS
CENTRAL QUEBEC, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON LAKE
ONTARIO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHER WAVES MAINLY
DIRECTED TOWARD CANADIAN WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
A WEAK LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
A GENERAL WEAK GRADIENT, RESULTING IN LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
CONDITIONS ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES COULD BECOME CHOPPY AGAIN BY
THURSDAY AS A NORTHEAST FLOW REDEVELOPS, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE FLOW IS LOW.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HSK/TMA
NEAR TERM...JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...JM/TMA/HSK
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