086
FXUS61 KBUF 191806
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
206 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT, COMBINING WITH A SURFACE WAVE/TROUGH TO DRAW A PRONOUNCED
MOISTURE AXIS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BETTER OVERALL ORGANIZATION
OF THE SURFACE WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN INTO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BLOSSOM
INTO THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN CONCERN, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES WITHIN THE MOISTURE
AXIS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO WHERE ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED, WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING AN INCH,
ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. DUE TO THE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR FLOODING AND
LARGELY BE BENEFICIAL ACROSS THE AREA.
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE AXIS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
SHIFTING EAST WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHEAR
PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE, SO THE SEVERE RISK LOOKS
LIMITED.
THE REST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A RESPECTABLE WIND SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY COMPONENT
WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, BUT THE INBOUND COOLER AND LESS HUMID
AIR MASS SHOULD GET RID OF THE PRECIPITATION THREAT OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
LONG WAVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS REACHES NORTH INTO
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND EXPANDS IN THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY, AS
HURRICANE ERIN ADVANCES UP AND THEN WELL AWAY FROM THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE WILL RESULT IN A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S THURSDAY WILL MIX IN SOME
LOWER 80S FOR THE LAKE PLAINS AND VALLEYS BY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SLIDE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME LATER IN THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A NOTABLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION
WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPEAR COLD ENOUGH
TO GENERATE A LAKE RESPONSE EARLY NEXT WEEK, DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD DAYTIME READINGS IN THE 80S, WITH A
NOTABLE COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
65 TO 75, WARMEST ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVER FAR SOUTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE FLIGHT CONDITIONS BECOME
MVFR OR BELOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY ON LAKE ONTARIO INTO THIS EVENING, WHILE
STAYING GENERALLY SOUTHEAST ON LAKE ERIE. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
15 KNOTS.
A WEAK LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS
TRENDING MORE TOWARD A NORTHERLY COMPONENT WITH THE LOW PASSING
SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO, WITH A GENERAL WEAK GRADIENT.
CONDITIONS ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME CHOPPY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHENS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME ON LAKE ONTARIO, AND POSSIBLY
LAKE ERIE.
CONDITIONS BECOME SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS ON LAKE ERIE
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
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