302
FXUS61 KBUF 202324
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
724 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION WITH KEEP SOME
PATCHY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LINGER TONIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH DRIFT
OFF TO THE SOUTH. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN THE
LOW OVERCAST ALONG WITH SOME FOG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.
LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY STILL LINGER EARLY THURSDAY, BUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GETS STRIPPED AWAY, A VERY SLOW DRYING TREND WILL TAKE OVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THURSDAY
WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WHILE WEAK RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR ATTENDANT TO THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
COMFORTABLE WEATHER...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS OUR AIRMASS
BEGINS TO MODIFY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OUT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
ONTARIO PROVINCE...WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM BECOMING INCREASINGLY
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER TIME. OUT AHEAD OF THIS...BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DRIFTING EAST TO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR DRY
WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY AS WELL...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS WNY LATER SATURDAY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING OF OUR GRADUALLY WARMING AND MOISTENING AIRMASS.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO WARMER TEMPS (LOW-MID 60S) AND
MODERATE HUMIDITY (TD'S IN THE LOWER-MID 60S) DURING SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE INITIAL CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY ACROSS JAMES BAY...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DROPS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND ENCOURAGES A CONTINUED BROADENING/DEEPENING OF THE
MEAN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONTINENT.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE INITIAL VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL
MAKE ITS WAY INTO QUEBEC WHILE SLOWLY PIVOTING ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS OUR REGION. THE APPROACH/
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND/OR A POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL
LIKELY HELP GENERATE FAIRLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH THE
CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING AND PROJECTED INSTABILITY/SHEAR SUGGESTING AT
LEAST SOME RISK FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY
EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
DRY SLOTTING ALOFT SHOULD THEN LEAD TO THE PCPN DIMINISHING FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE MUCH COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AS
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP...FULL-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONSOLIDATES
ITS GRIP ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ON MONDAY...THEN REMAINS
FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONSEQUENTLY
TUMBLING INTO THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS BY
SOMETIME EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. IN TURN...THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A POTENTIAL FOR (DARE I SAY
IT) SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...AS WELL AS
SOME MORE GENERAL SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
WITH DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF OUR INCREASINGLY COOLER
AIRMASS. WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE UNABLE TO RESOLVE THE LAKE EFFECT
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE...HAVE ADDED SOME 20-40%
POPS TO THE FORECAST WHERE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PATCHES OF PRECIPITATION AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT, SUPPORTING IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TONIGHT. WHILE KART WILL REMAIN OVERCAST, CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
3K FEET AND IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. KBUF/KIAG/KROC SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. KJHW LIKELY WILL ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE IN
THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, WITH ITS INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING
NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK, WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20 KNOTS, MAINTAINING SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS ON LAKE ERIE
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT.
THOUGH THE NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY, WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN
TO LOWER BY THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WAVES TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH,
ENDING THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES.
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001-
002.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...EAJ/TMA
MARINE...TMA
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