679
FXUS61 KBUF 210552
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
152 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH OVERCAST
SKIES SLOWLY BREAKING FOR AFTERNOON SUNSHINE TO THE NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND, WITH A COLD
FRONT BRINGING THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS SHROUDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EARLY
MORNING, WITH THESE LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING SOME AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH IS
BRINGING CLEARING TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
FOR TODAY AS MOISTURE THINS THE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL END
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF WNY THIS MORNING, THOUGH A DECK OF STRATUS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, AND EVEN
INTO THE EVENING HOURS CLOSER TO THE STATE LINE AS DRYING SLOWLY
BUILDS SOUTHWARD.
TONIGHT A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH AT THE SURFACE. CLEARING SKIES
AND A LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEY FOG.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WHILE WEAK RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR ATTENDANT TO THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
COMFORTABLE WEATHER...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS OUR AIRMASS
BEGINS TO MODIFY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OUT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
ONTARIO PROVINCE...WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM BECOMING INCREASINGLY
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER TIME. OUT AHEAD OF THIS...BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DRIFTING EAST TO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR DRY
WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY AS WELL...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS WNY LATER SATURDAY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING OF OUR GRADUALLY WARMING AND MOISTENING AIRMASS.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO WARMER TEMPS (LOW-MID 60S) AND
MODERATE HUMIDITY (TD'S IN THE LOWER-MID 60S) DURING SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE INITIAL CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY ACROSS JAMES BAY...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DROPS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND ENCOURAGES A CONTINUED BROADENING/DEEPENING OF THE
MEAN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONTINENT.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE INITIAL VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL
MAKE ITS WAY INTO QUEBEC WHILE SLOWLY PIVOTING ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS OUR REGION. THE APPROACH/
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND/OR A POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL
LIKELY HELP GENERATE FAIRLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH THE
CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING AND PROJECTED INSTABILITY/SHEAR SUGGESTING AT
LEAST SOME RISK FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY
EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
DRY SLOTTING ALOFT SHOULD THEN LEAD TO THE PCPN DIMINISHING FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE MUCH COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AS
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP...FULL-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONSOLIDATES
ITS GRIP ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ON MONDAY...THEN REMAINS
FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONSEQUENTLY
TUMBLING INTO THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS BY
SOMETIME EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. IN TURN...THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A POTENTIAL FOR (DARE I SAY
IT) SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...AS WELL AS
SOME MORE GENERAL SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
WITH DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF OUR INCREASINGLY COOLER
AIRMASS. WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE UNABLE TO RESOLVE THE LAKE EFFECT
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE...HAVE ADDED SOME 20-40%
POPS TO THE FORECAST WHERE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS A NORTHEAST FLOW IS MAINTAINING LOW END MVFR TO IFR
CEILING HEIGHTS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH LIFR CEILING HEIGHTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE SOME PATCHES OF
DRIZZLE REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z-14Z.
THOUGH DRIZZLE WILL END THIS MORNING, CLEARING WILL BE SLOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILING HEIGHTS, AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IFR LINGERING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH A RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TONIGHT,
THOUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TO
FILL WITH FOG, POSSIBLY REACHING KJHW LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER.
MARINE
NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE
ERIE AND THE WESTERN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKES. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
FRIDAY BECOMING SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CROSS THE LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001-002.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LOZ043.
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page