148
FXUS61 KBUF 210645
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
245 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH OVERCAST
SKIES SLOWLY BREAKING FOR AFTERNOON SUNSHINE TO THE NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND, WITH A COLD
FRONT BRINGING THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS SHROUDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EARLY
MORNING, WITH THESE LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING SOME AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH IS
BRINGING CLEARING TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
FOR TODAY AS MOISTURE THINS THE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL END
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF WNY THIS MORNING, THOUGH A DECK OF STRATUS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, AND EVEN
INTO THE EVENING HOURS CLOSER TO THE STATE LINE AS DRYING SLOWLY
BUILDS SOUTHWARD.
TONIGHT A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH AT THE SURFACE. CLEARING SKIES
AND A LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEY FOG.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER. COMFORTABLE TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...DRY WEATHER WILL
'LIKELY' PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME JUST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THAT SAID...LATE SATURDAY
(EVENING) AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL BEGINS TO INCREASE AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WORKS THROUGH AND
THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT RIGHT NOW, IF
GUIDANCE HOLDS, IS PROJECTED TO CROSS FAR WESTERN NY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THEN EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DRY SLOTTING
SHOULD THEN LEAD TO THE PCPN DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING-NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A TOUCH OF FALL WILL GRACE THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY, AND THEN
LAST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AND POSSIBLY LONGER. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS IS ADVERTISED TO ENGULF MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY CHURNS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THEN INTO
QUEBEC. THE AIRMASS WILL EVEN BECOME COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 'LAKE
EFFECT' RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AS H850T'S DROP IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. WE WILL SEE SOME INLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IN THE
AFTERNOON EACH DAY. DRIER WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THEN
APPEARS TO TAKE OVER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS WE HEAD
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS A NORTHEAST FLOW IS MAINTAINING LOW END MVFR TO IFR
CEILING HEIGHTS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH LIFR CEILING HEIGHTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE SOME PATCHES OF
DRIZZLE REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z-14Z.
THOUGH DRIZZLE WILL END THIS MORNING, CLEARING WILL BE SLOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILING HEIGHTS, AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IFR LINGERING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH A RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TONIGHT,
THOUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TO
FILL WITH FOG, POSSIBLY REACHING KJHW LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER.
MARINE
NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE
ERIE AND THE WESTERN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKES. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
FRIDAY BECOMING SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CROSS THE LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001-002.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LOZ043.
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
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