388
FXUS61 KBUF 220610
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
210 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH, BRIEFLY,
TO OUR REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH
COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND
EMBEDDED LAKE EFFECT RAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
EARLY THIS MORNING OUR REGION HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED OUT, WITH THE
LAST GASPS OF THE LOW STRATUS LINGERING NEAR THE STATE LINE.
LIGHT WINDS AND THESE CLEAR SKIES, COUPLED WITH LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS IS ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING, MOST
PROMINENT THROUGH THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE
VALLEY.
A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS OUR REGION TODAY,
WITH FAIR WEATHER REMAINING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AND A
RETURN BRIEFLY TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WARMTH BY SATURDAY.
A FEW PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT
AS WELL AS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS.
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY WITH
A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WITH DECENT
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY OF 600 TO 1200 J/KG MUCAPE WITHIN PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WEST OF THE GENESEE RIVER.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE BROAD...VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW WILL
SLOWLY MEANDER AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF JAMES BAY...WHILE
SLOWLY PIVOTING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT AND LEADING PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS OUR REGION. AS THESE FEATURES
INTERACT WITH AND LIFT OUR ANTECEDENT WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID
AIRMASS...THESE WILL HELP TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT
THE COVERAGE OF THESE WILL PEAK ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK SATURDAY
NIGHT AND ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES BETWEEN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF THESE A BIT FASTER THAN SEEN AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE ABOVE SAID...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME
DIFFERENCES STILL PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT OF WAVINESS
THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND CONSEQUENTLY ITS EVENTUAL
TIMING. THE SLOWER THAT THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA...THE
LARGER THE WINDOW FOR DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE ON SUNDAY...
AND IF THIS IS LARGE ENOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE AT LEAST SOME RISK
FOR A FEW STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
35-45 KNOTS OF DEEP-LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. AT THIS JUNCTURE...
THE BEST CHANCES OF SUCH APPEAR TO LIE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES...HOWEVER THIS WILL AGAIN DEPEND UPON THE EVENTUAL TIMING OF
THE FRONT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DRY
SLOTTING ALOFT SHOULD BRING ABOUT A DIMINISHING TREND TO ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES...WITH A FEW SPOTTY LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS THEN BECOMING POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
OVERNIGHT AS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT. SPEAKING OF
WHICH...THE LATTER WILL ALSO ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP BACK TO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/NORTH COUNTRY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP...FULL-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
CONSOLIDATE ITS GRIP ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROUNDS ITS BASE...THEN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND
BROADENING LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DELIVER
A SHOT OF THE COOLEST AIR WE'VE SEEN IN A WHILE (850 MB TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO) TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
WILL ALSO TRANSLATE INTO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES EACH NIGHT/MORNING...AND MORE GENERAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE AGAIN UNABLE TO ADEQUATELY RESOLVE THE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE...HAVE MANUALLY
INSERTED SOME HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING (50% CHANCE) AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY (30%-20%
CHANCES RESPECTIVELY). BY LATER WEDNESDAY...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
RIDGING AND THE ONSET OF GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT SHOULD BRING ABOUT A
TREND TOWARD DRIER WEATHER...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS LARGELY
BACK IN THE 70S EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ERODING LOW STRATUS HAS JUST
ABOUT CLEARING OUR REGION, LINGERING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER NEAR
KJHW AND THE SOUTHERN SOUTHERN TIER.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS PERIOD, AND THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE FORMATION OF FOG. WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING
THE DEWPOINT AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING KIAG, KBUF
AND KJHW. WILL PLACE IFR VISIBILITY TEMPO IN FOR KIAG, WHILE THE
LINGERING STRATUS MAY NARROW THE WINDOW FOR FOG FOR KJHW. LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS WELL FOR KBUF THAT MAY ALSO YIELD SOME
PATCHES OF FOG.
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH
ANY FOG FORMATION LIKELY FOR JUST EASTERN ZONES...INCLUDING KART.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER AFTERNOONS/EARLY EVENINGS. MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS OVERNIGHTS INTO THE MORNINGS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
MARINE
WEAK GRADIENT FLOW TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT BECOMES LIGHTLY SOUTHERLY TONIGHT, AND BEGINS TO
INCREASE IN SPEED FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THIS SOUTH-SOUSTHWEST FLOW MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON
THE EASTERN ENDS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
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