495
FXUS61 KBUF 221818
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
218 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WHILE BRINGING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE US WITH
PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH FAIRLY
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE MERELY MIXED WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS...AND
HIGHS MOSTLY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AND OUT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA
OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER
ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WE PUSH THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAN WHAT WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COMFORTABLE NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/NORTH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
ON SATURDAY THE INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER ONTARIO
PROVINCE WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY TO JAMES BAY...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND
SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST AIR WILL RESIDE ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WILL
RESULT IN WARMER HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...ALONG WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO MODERATELY HUMID LEVELS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY...THIS MAY CHANGE TO A
LIMITED EXTENT DURING THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON...AS A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK. IN THE PRESENCE OF OUR WARMING/MOISTENING AIRMASS...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY...THE
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO POP A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH
ANY SUCH ACTIVITY THEN TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE VICINITY
OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A POTENT MID-LEVEL LOW GYRATING NEAR JAMES BAY, AND SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL BRING A TASTE OF
'FALL' TO THE LOWER LAKES BY MONDAY WHICH THEN LASTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY EVENING-NIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT...AS WAS NOTED IN A
PREVIOUS AFD THE TIMING OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN
SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT WILL DETERMINE OUR SVR STORM POTENTIAL.
ITS WORTH NOTING THAT MODELS DO SHOW 35-45 KNOTS OF SHEAR, SO A
FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...AGAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL ALL HINGE ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, AND THEN ITS PROGRESS EAST ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE FOUND IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S, BEFORE MUCH COOLER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DRY
SLOTTING ALOFT SHOULD BRING ABOUT A DIMINISHING TREND TO ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES...WITH A FEW
SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS THEN BECOMING POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...CAA WILL CONTINUE WITH H850T'S DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS (ABOVE ZERO). GIVEN THE MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT, WE
SHOULD SEE SOME MEASURE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL THIS
SEASON, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCALES.
MONDAY NIGHT...ANY INLAND SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS FOUND IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE LAKES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP...FULL-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AND BROADENING LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD AND SHORTWAVES PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION, WE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL RIDGING AND THE ONSET OF GRADUAL
WARMING ALOFT SHOULD BRING ABOUT A TREND TOWARD DRIER WEATHER...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO THURSDAY AND HIGHS LARGELY BACK IN THE
70S.
UNSETTLE WEATHER LOOKS LIKE IT RETURNS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL DRIFT OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...THEN OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN FAIR DRY WEATHER AND LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION
THROUGH THAT TIME COMING IN THE FORM OF SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AND
ASSOCIATED REDUCTIONS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT.
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF/LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE ALONG A DEVELOPING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WITH DRY VFR WEATHER OTHERWISE CONTINUING TO PREVAIL.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER AFTERNOONS/EARLY EVENINGS. MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS OVERNIGHTS INTO THE MORNINGS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...THEN OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SATURDAY. GENERALLY WEAK FLOW UNDERNEATH THE HIGH WILL BECOME LIGHT
TO MODEST SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST...THEN WILL
INCREASE A BIT FURTHER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THIS POINT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH
COULD COME CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE OVER-LAKE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT DOWN
TO THE LAKE SURFACES...AND SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF
ADVISORY-WORTHY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
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