212
FXUS61 KBUF 042343
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
743 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH IT WILL TURN WINDY,
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS EXITING EAST OF THE FINGER LAKES THIS EVENING,
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
TO THE LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.
A DEEP, CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
THROUGH FRIDAY. A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
PARENT TROUGH FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY IN THIS STRETCH WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH, GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER
CANADIAN AIRMASS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS
WILL ONLY BE +1 TO +3C BY SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL NOT ONLY
LEAD TO TEMPS RUNNING SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL BUT ALSO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS, ONCE
ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ARRIVES TO THE REGION. LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE FOUND EAST OF THE LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS, IN
CONCERT WITH DIURNAL HEATING, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY BE FOUND
OUTSIDE THE PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT AREAS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE STACKED LOW AND CORE OF THE COOL AIRMASS NEAR JAMES BAY WILL
SWING NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
COULD LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION, THERE COULD BE A RISK OF
FROST ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
WHILE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, MID/LOWER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR A
QUIETER STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSLATING EAST OF THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GENTLE DAY TO DAY
WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK, THOUGH TEMPS ON THE WHOLE WILL STILL
LIKELY AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT INTO EASTERN NEW YORK, ENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK BY 02Z. DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL INCREASE FRIDAY. STRONG WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KIAG/KBUF FRI AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR EAST OF LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ON LAKE ERIE AND THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT, THEN DIMINISH AREAWIDE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/TMA
NEAR TERM...HSK/TMA
SHORT TERM...AR/PP
LONG TERM...AR/PP
AVIATION...HSK/TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/HSK/TMA
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