120
FXUS61 KBUF 051733
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
133 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO WINDY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TODAY BUT EXPECT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. UNSETTLE WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT, WITH SOME RAIN
AND THEN TURNING COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND A DAY TO DAY WARMING
TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY, AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ADVANCING TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WHILE DRY, IT
WILL BE BREEZY TO QUITE WINDY, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AFTER 18Z, THIS AS A
+45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES FOCUSED OVER THE LAKE ERIE, AND
ALSO LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH PEAK HEATING. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS
IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE ACROSS NIAGARA AND NORTHERN ERIE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE
LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES, AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH
THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THE SLOWLY
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES
OF RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
THEN FOCUS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER/GENESEE VALLEY EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
THE FINGER LAKES REGION, AND THEN NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK BY SATURDAY
MID-MORNING. THIS IS WHERE THE MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS
POTENTIALLY WILL MAXIMIZE, DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE FRONT ADVANCES
AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE FRONTAL WAVE. ONGOING PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK WILL EVER SO SLOWLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY MID-AFTERNOON, AND THEN TAPER OFF LATE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL...SATURDAY IS NOT LOOKING
PLEASANT BUT RATHER DAMP AND DEFINITELY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MAX'TS
PEAKING IN THE 60S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A DEEP AND DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PERIOD WILL OPEN
SATURDAY WITH ONGOING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS A
WAVY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND
THIS FROPA, A COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL CONTINUOUSLY SPILL INTO THE
REGION WITH 850MB TEMPS DIPPING AS LOW AS +1 TO +3C BY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRETCH OF SFC TEMPS MORE AKIN TO EARLY
OCTOBER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. ONCE REINFORCING SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE ARRIVES, AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WILL ALSO
CONTEND WITH PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE LAKES, AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY. WITH
DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES, SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY MAY DEVELOP OUTSIDE THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS.
A PROGRESSIVE SFC-850MB RIDGE WILL MOVE SQUARELY OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING, THEN SHIFT OFF TO NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY TAPER OFF
THE LAST OF THE LAKE RESPONSE WHILE ALSO POTENTIALLY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SOME FROST ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME
QUESTION WITH HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH MOVES EAST, WHICH COULD MODERATE
THE AIRMASS AND LEAD TO ENOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PRECLUDE FROST
THOUGH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR WILL EXTEND BACK
DOWN THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW FOR A
GENTLE WARMING TREND, WITH TEMPS BRIEFLY RECOVERING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL. ALOFT, AN INITIAL PERIOD OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL GIVE WAY TO BROAD SCALE TROUGHING PIVOTING SOUTH FROM
CANADA SOMETIME LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
FAR TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION
WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THOUGH GIVEN TYPICAL LONG RANGE UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK, STRENGTH AND
TIMING WILL STICK WITH NBM'S MAINLY DRY FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BREEZY TO QUITE WINDY TODAY, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE WHERE
KIAG AND KBUF WILL SEE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40+ KNOTS AT TIMES.
ELSEWHERE...WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL BE QUITE COMMON.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT, WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE FOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER/GENESEE VALLEY EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
THE FINGER LAKES REGION, AND THEN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MID
SATURDAY MORNING.
CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR-IFR WITHIN THE RAIN, WHILE MAINLY VFR
CONTINUES AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR-IFR WITHIN RAIN, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR EAST OF LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND THEN THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE ERIE AND THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THEN ALL LAKES BY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME QUITE GUSTY ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SATURDAY, BUT WILL STILL PRODUCE VERY
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. THE VERY
CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
FURTHER TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE MUCH
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, THERE WILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS, AND ALSO WATERSPOUTS BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY WITH
A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVE ACTION THROUGH MIDWEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001-010.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-
085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LOZ045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022-024.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR/HITCHCOCK
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