124
FXUS61 KBUF 070613
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER FALL-LIKE DAY
WITH PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER
WEATHER ARRIVES MONDAY AND LASTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND WILL EMERGE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE COOLING OFF AGAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 500MB COLD
CORE WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM NEAR LAKE HURON
THIS MORNING TO QUEBEC BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +3C
TO +5C ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
VERY AUTUMN-LIKE DAY WITH SFC HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S.
WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY, SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ADVECTING
IN AND WSW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
OFF BOTH LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY FROM
THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO EVEN SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES. BEHIND A
LEADING SHORTWAVE THE STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WNW ORIENTED
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE, WHICH SHOULD BOTH DIRECT THE LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY MORE DUE EAST OF THE LAKES AND LESSEN THE OVERALL
INTENSITY. THIS SHOULD FIRST OCCUR OFF LAKE ERIE AFTER DAYBREAK,
WITH LAKE ONTARIO FOLLOWING SUIT BY MID-MORNING. WITH THE COLD POOL
ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING, A FEW MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE BL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NW'ERLY AND ANOTHER THIN PLUME
OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING, ADDITIONAL
PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST OF THE
LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR S. TIER AND N. COUNTRY OVERNIGHT, WITH A RANGE
OF 40S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL COME TO AN END PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK MONDAY, WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LEFT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE LAKE MONDAY MORNING.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY, THEN REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY WHILE A NARROW RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES
TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL BRING A LONG STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER TO OUR REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
MONDAY WILL STILL BE COOL, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS. THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIKELY DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT FROST POSSIBLE. DAY
TO DAY WARMING THEN DEVELOPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH UPPER
70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST US AND EASTERN CANADA. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY, BUT THIS
FRONT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE SUPPORT, LIKELY
COMING THROUGH DRY. THE FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE
FOR FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARMING TREND DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH COOL AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING TODAY. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS, WHICH WILL BE INITIALLY
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING (SOUTH OF KBUF OFF
ERIE, NORTH OF KART OFF ONTARIO) BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKESHORES
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING, ADDITIONAL LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH VERY LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF KROC (CENTERED CLOSER TO KFZY) OFF LAKE
ONTARIO THOUGH MAY IMPACT KJHW OFF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE, VALLEY FOG
MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN TIER THOUGH IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
MARINE
WESTERLY WINDS ON BOTH LAKES WILL START TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SEE BELOW) WILL BE ON TAP
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS WINDS BRIEFLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, WINDS ON LAKE ERIE MAY REACH 15KTS FOR A FEW HOURS WITH A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CHOP.
WITH A COOL AIRMASS OVERHEAD, LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS, AND WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE
PRIMARY TIMEFRAME OF CONCERN FOR THESE WILL BE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LAKES WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, BECOMING LIGHT BY MONDAY EVENING.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LOZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR LOZ044-045.
SYNOPSIS...PP
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...HSK/JM/PP
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