000
FXUS61 KBUF 071803
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
203 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COOL AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER TODAY, WITH A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER
WEATHER AND A GRADUAL DAY TO DAY WARMING BEGINNING MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY
THE AXIS OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY, AND THEN BEGIN TO MODIFY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WITH THE COLD POOL MOVING OVERHEAD AND DIURNAL HEATING, A FEW
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INLAND
FROM THE LAKES.
A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKES. GIVEN THE COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...WE WILL SEE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. A FEW COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE S. TIER AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL SEE MERCURY READINGS DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S. THAT
SAID...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FROST IN THOSE COLDER SPOTS
OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER
TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. STILL A COOL DAY BUT PLEASANT
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
MAY SEE MAXT'S IN THE LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND AT
THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND OUT TO SEA THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHILE LINGERING WEAKER
RIDGING EXTENDS BACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BOTH DAYS.
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING MONDAY NIGHT...AND
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE AGAIN AIMED BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
EXPECT READINGS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN THE LATTER AREAS. ONGOING AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN HELP TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND BACK TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SOMETIME BETWEEN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BRIEFLY REAMPLIFIES. GIVEN
ITS WEAK NATURE AND ONLY VERY LIMITED ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE...THIS
BOUNDARY REMAINS LIKELY TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION WITH LITTLE IF
ANY FANFARE.
FOLLOWING THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY THEN DIVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ACROSS OUR REGION
BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A
FEW SHOWERS FOR THE LAST QUARTER OR SO OF THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE THIS FAR OUT...HAVE KEPT ASSOCIATED ANY POPS CONFINED TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.
AS FOR TEMPS...THESE SHOULD PULL BACK SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SOME MODEST WARMING THEN
RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR TODAY, A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INLAND FROM THE LAKES. IF ANY TERMINALS DO SEE A SHOWER, IT COULD
BRING A VERY BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY.
TONIGHT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ADDITIONALLY...VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE S. TIER AFTER 09Z WHICH MAY IMPACT KJHW.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
MARINE
ELEVATED WINDS TO CONTINUE ON LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES INTO TONIGHT. ON LAKE ERIE...AS WINDS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST CHOP, WITH WAVES
OF 2-3 FEET INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LAKES
TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO SUBSIDE INTO MONDAY.
LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS WAVE ACTION MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ044-045.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
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