010
FXUS61 KBUF 080247
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1047 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FALL-LIKE FEEL TO THE AIR WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, WITH A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THAT
SHOULD PREVAIL ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, ALONG
WITH DAY TO DAY WARMING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. GIVEN THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE,
WE WILL SEE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. A FEW COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL SEE MERCURY READINGS DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S.
THAT SAID, THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FROST IN THOSE
COLDER SPOTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER. RIVER
VALLEY FOG ALSO LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER
TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. STILL A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE,
BUT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY SEE READINGS IN
THE LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND AT
THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND OUT TO SEA THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHILE LINGERING WEAKER
RIDGING EXTENDS BACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BOTH DAYS.
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING MONDAY NIGHT...AND
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE AGAIN AIMED BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
EXPECT READINGS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN THE LATTER AREAS. ONGOING AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN HELP TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND BACK TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SOMETIME BETWEEN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BRIEFLY REAMPLIFIES. GIVEN
ITS WEAK NATURE AND ONLY VERY LIMITED ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE...THIS
BOUNDARY REMAINS LIKELY TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION WITH LITTLE IF
ANY FANFARE.
FOLLOWING THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY THEN DIVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ACROSS OUR REGION
BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A
FEW SHOWERS FOR THE LAST QUARTER OR SO OF THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE THIS FAR OUT...HAVE KEPT ASSOCIATED ANY POPS CONFINED TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.
AS FOR TEMPS...THESE SHOULD PULL BACK SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SOME MODEST WARMING THEN
RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR TONIGHT. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MVFR
CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND
POTENTIAL FOR SOME VALLEY FOG FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATER
TONIGHT, LASTING INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY MORNING. A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THE START OF MONDAY
MORNING, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
MARINE
ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON BOTH LAKES INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO, WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. MODERATE CHOP
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING 2-3 FOOT WAVES ON THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. A FEW WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND A MORE ORGANIZED LAKE BAND ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE GRADIENT WITH WINDS AND WAVES GRADUALLY
LOWERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH NO MORE THAN SOME LIGHT CHOP EXPECTED AT TIMES.
BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MODERATE CHOP WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK
WHEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ELEVATE SOME IN THE WAKE OF WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ044-045.
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...AR/JM
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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