323
FXUS61 KBUF 080551
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
151 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUTSIDE OF SOME SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING,
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GUARANTEE FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER DAY BY DAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK, THEN REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL LINGER OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WHILE PROGRESSIVE SFC-850MB RIDGING BUILDS
SQUARELY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
QUIET FALL-LIKE WEATHER DAY. DESPITE THE COLDER START (AND EVEN
POTENTIALLY SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE INTERIOR) HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVERALL COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. OUTSIDE
OF SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DESPITE THE AIRMASS MODERATING A BIT WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR +6C, THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP SHOULD
CAUSE TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S WITH A BIT
MORE FROST POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THIS OCCURING ACROSS
SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTY WHERE A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED, THOUGH
MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER (ESPECIALLY CATTARAUGUS CO). ELSEWHERE, MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEDGE OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. NIGHTS WILL BE COOL, BUT THERE WILL BE A
GRADUAL DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MID
70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, THEN MID TO UPPER 70S FOR WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY, BUT THIS FRONT WILL BE DEVOID
OF MOISTURE OR LARGE SCALE FORCING, WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS, SO HIGHS WILL
STILL BE IN THE 70S TO END THE WEEK.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. SOME INDIVIDUAL
MODEL RUNS HAVE EVEN SHOWED A STRONG CLOSED LOW WITHIN THIS TROUGH
CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, BUT AN EXAMINATION OF
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE SPREAD ON THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, FOR NOW MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL MORE CLARITY IS SEEN IN ENSEMBLE
TRENDS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PATCHY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. SOME
MEASURE OF IFR VALLEY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH 12Z WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO VSBYS AT KJHW.
OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH
JUST SCT DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
MARINE
THE MODEST CHOP ON BOTH LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY
OVER THE REGION, DECREASING THE OVERALL GRADIENT WIND. BOTH WINDS
AND WAVES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT BY THE AFTERNOON.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH NO MORE THAN SOME LIGHT CHOP
EXPECTED AT TIMES. BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MODERATE CHOP WILL NOT BE
UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK WHEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ELEVATE SOME IN
THE WAKE OF WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ044-045.
SYNOPSIS...PP
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...JM/PP
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