805
FXUS61 KBUF 081028
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
628 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GUARANTEE FAIR DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER DAY BY DAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK, THEN REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL LINGER OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WHILE PROGRESSIVE SFC-850MB RIDGING BUILDS
SQUARELY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
QUIET FALL-LIKE WEATHER DAY, AND DESPITE THE COLDER START HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVERALL COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DESPITE THE AIRMASS MODERATING A BIT WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR +6C, THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP SHOULD
CAUSE TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THIS
OCCURING ACROSS SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTY WHERE A FROST ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED, THOUGH MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER (ESPECIALLY CATTARAUGUS CO).
ELSEWHERE, MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEDGE OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. NIGHTS WILL BE COOL, BUT THERE WILL BE A
GRADUAL DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MID
70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, THEN MID TO UPPER 70S FOR WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY, BUT THIS FRONT WILL BE DEVOID
OF MOISTURE OR LARGE SCALE FORCING, WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS, SO HIGHS WILL
STILL BE IN THE 70S TO END THE WEEK.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. SOME INDIVIDUAL
MODEL RUNS HAVE EVEN SHOWED A STRONG CLOSED LOW WITHIN THIS TROUGH
CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, BUT AN EXAMINATION OF
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE SPREAD ON THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, FOR NOW MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL MORE CLARITY IS SEEN IN ENSEMBLE
TRENDS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. PATCHY VFR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
PERIODICALLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SCT DIURNAL CU DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW LOCALIZED IFR VALLEY FOG TO
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. IMPACTS AT KJHW ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
MARINE
THE LIGHT CHOP ON LAKE ERIE AND MODEST CHOP ON ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION, DECREASING THE OVERALL
GRADIENT WIND. BOTH WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT BY
THE AFTERNOON.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH NO MORE THAN SOME LIGHT CHOP
EXPECTED AT TIMES. BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MODERATE CHOP WILL NOT BE
UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK WHEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ELEVATE SOME IN
THE WAKE OF WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PP
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...JM/PP
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