917
FXUS61 KBUF 082332
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
732 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
FAIR DRY WEATHER WITH A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
WEAKENING FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH A
SLIGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXITS SLOWLY OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE AIRMASS MODERATING A BIT, A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETUP SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO FALL BACK INTO THE
30S IN SPOTS. FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR LEWIS, CATTARAUGUS
AND ALLEGHENY COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, A RANGE OF 40S WILL FOUND.
DRY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
MODERATE. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE FOUND IN THE 70S
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE
SPINE OF THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE KEEPING
TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE. MEANWHILE
CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING OF OUR AIRMASS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE MID 70S
ELSEWHERE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW OF OUR NORMAL WARM SPOTS
REACHING THE UPPER 70S.
BRIEF/MODEST RE-AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA BETWEEN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER
THIS FRONT WILL BE SO STARVED FOR MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT THAT IT
WILL PRIMARILY BE MARKED BY A SHIFT FROM LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY WINDS. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ANOTHER SPRAWLING
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE FROM JAMES BAY TO
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP FAIR
DRY WEATHER INTACT ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH NEARLY IDENTICAL
TEMPS TO THE PRECEDING 24 HOURS GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY REAL AIRMASS
CHANGE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST FROM QUEBEC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH ATTENDANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY WEATHER
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN
HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY GIVEN SOME SUBTLE COOLING ALOFT...WITH WARM
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH THEN SENDING READINGS BACK UP
INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST OF OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY.
LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GUIDANCE SUITE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE RE-AMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS BEING
SAID...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD PERSISTS WITH RESPECT TO ITS STRENGTH
AND TIMING...WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
EMBEDDED VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW TO DROP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WHILE THE INCREASED TROUGHING SHOULD GENERALLY BRING THE CHANCE OF
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO OUR REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO CONFINE POPS TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE (20-30%) RANGE GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY
(LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE) IN HOW THIS TROUGH/ANY EMBEDDED CLOSED
LOWS WILL EVOLVE. AS FOR TEMPS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THE
INCREASING TROUGHING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN THESE PULLING BACK
SOME...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY BACK IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR TONIGHT WITH SKC, PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
S. TIER AND LEWIS CO. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS IMPACTING KJHW.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
MARINE
LIGHT CHOP WILL BE FOUND ON AREA LAKES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME
MODEST CHOP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY, WHEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
ELEVATE SOME IN THE WAKE OF WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH AND OVERHEAD FRIDAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE
ACTION.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ008-020-
021.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...AR/TMA
MARINE...AR
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