137
FXUS61 KBUF 090530
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
130 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WILL LAST ALL WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT WILL BRING
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE TYPICAL COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND
PARTS OF LEWIS COUNTY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME
PATCHY FROST. A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8AM FOR
CATTARAUGUS, ALLEGANY, AND LEWIS COUNTIES. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED WEDGE OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
SUPPORT NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE TODAY, AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
A FEW SPOTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
AFTER THE COOL START, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS, WITH MID 70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES, AND AROUND 70 ON THE HILLS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS, AND LOWER 40S FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS
AND LEWIS COUNTY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE BASED RIDGING OVERHEAD OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY,
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC HOWEVER, RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
PRESIDE OVERHEAD OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MAINTAIN CALM
QUIESCENT WEATHER. THE EXITING RIDGE, WILL SUPPORT WARM AIR TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB UP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID TO UPPER 70S
ELSEWHERE.
BRIEF RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN SPREAD
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE CONSIDERABLE LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SUPPORT A DRY FRONT, WHERE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SOLELY BE REPRESENTED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ANOTHER AREA OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH FROM THE JAMES BAY TO
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE QUEBEC PROVINCE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AN NO AIRMASS
CHANGE, EXPECT SIMILAR DAYTIME HIGHS THURSDAY AS THOSE THAT OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST FROM QUEBEC TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SUPPORTING PLENTY OF DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A SUBTLE
COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER OVERHEAD FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE DAY PRIOR, SUPPORTING A
COOLER DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MID 70S TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GUIDANCE
SUITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE RE-AMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS FAR OUT
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO ITS
STRENGTH AND TIMING. SOME OF THE STRONGER DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS
OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
EMBEDDED VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW TO DROP SOUTH SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WHILE THE INCREASED TROUGHING SHOULD GENERALLY BRING THE CHANCE OF
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO OUR REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO CONFINE POPS TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE (20-30%) RANGE GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY
(LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE) IN HOW THIS TROUGH/ANY EMBEDDED CLOSED
LOWS WILL EVOLVE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THE
INCREASING TROUGHING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES,
SUPPORTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RETURN MOSTLY BACK IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THERE MAY BE JUST A LITTLE PATCHY FOG AND LOCAL IFR AROUND DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO, BUT COVERAGE OF THIS WILL REMAIN SPARSE.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
FOG AND LOCAL IFR AGAIN ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF
AIRFIELDS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
MARINE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO, WITH A
MODERATE CHOP DEVELOPING ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY. A
MODEST INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL BRING A LIGHT
CHOP THERE AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT, WITH SOME CHOP
DEVELOPING NEAR THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ008-020-021.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ/JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page