566
FXUS61 KBUF 091729
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
129 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WILL LAST ALL WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT WILL BRING
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
LATEST GOES IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE NY AND
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST US EXTENDING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE LOW-70S ACROSS
WESTERN NY AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS OF EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KBUF SOUNDING SHOWED A DRY PROFILE WITH
PWS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH PERCENTILE VALUE. DIURNAL CU HAS
DEVELOPED IN SPOTS AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTIONS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED WITH THE OVERALL DRY
ENVIRONMENT. HEADED INTO TONIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, BUT ISOLATED
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
NUDGE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER NEAR 10 DEGC. WESTERN NY WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A TRAILING
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM AN UPPER LOW IN
CANADA. COULD SEE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS OVERHEAD WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST, OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT THE START OF THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO TO NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH A PAUCITY OF MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ACCOMPANYING THIS BOUNDARY...ITS PASSAGE
WILL MERELY BE MARKED A SHIFT FROM LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TO LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY MORNING.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
GRADUALLY SETTLE FROM JAMES BAY TO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR DRY WEATHER CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF SATURDAY...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY LATE SATURDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
LATER IN THE WEEKEND THE GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE RE-
AMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS OUR REGION...HOWEVER A
RATHER LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD AND LACK OF CONSISTENCY PERSISTS WITH
RESPECT TO ITS STRENGTH...TIMING...AND DURATION. WITH POTENTIAL
SCENARIOS RANGING FROM A VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW DROPPING ACROSS AND
THEN LINGERING NEAR/OVER OUR REGION TO A MUCH MORE OPEN AND
PROGRESSIVE WAVE...IT SHOULD GO WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE LEVEL OF
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD IS HIGH...AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW.
WITH THIS IN MIND...FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL STICK CLOSE TO OUR
CONTINUITY AND BLENDED GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE (20-30%) POPS FOR SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TREND BACK TOWARD DRIER
WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL OVERALL...WITH A NOMINALLY
COOLER PERIOD ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL
SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY/MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY LEAD TO WIND SHIFTS THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR KBUF, KIAG, AND KROC TO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE, GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED.
LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE CLEARING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
OUTSIDE OF FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO, WITH A
MODERATE CHOP DEVELOPING ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY. A
MODEST INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL BRING A LIGHT
CHOP THERE AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT, WITH SOME CHOP
DEVELOPING NEAR THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...BROTHERS
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...BROTHERS
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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