416
FXUS61 KBUF 100003
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
803 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
FAIR DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT
WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND COOL WITH A RANGE OF 40S, WARMER NEAR THE
LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE S. TIER AND
BLACK RIVER VALLEY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH
HIGHS FIRMLY IN THE 70S, NEAR 80F IN THE GENESEE VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT THE START OF THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO TO NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH A PAUCITY OF MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ACCOMPANYING THIS BOUNDARY...ITS PASSAGE
WILL MERELY BE MARKED A SHIFT FROM LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TO LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY MORNING.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
GRADUALLY SETTLE FROM JAMES BAY TO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR DRY WEATHER CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF SATURDAY...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY LATE SATURDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
LATER IN THE WEEKEND THE GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE RE-
AMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS OUR REGION...HOWEVER A
RATHER LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD AND LACK OF CONSISTENCY PERSISTS WITH
RESPECT TO ITS STRENGTH...TIMING...AND DURATION. WITH POTENTIAL
SCENARIOS RANGING FROM A VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW DROPPING ACROSS AND
THEN LINGERING NEAR/OVER OUR REGION TO A MUCH MORE OPEN AND
PROGRESSIVE WAVE...IT SHOULD GO WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE LEVEL OF
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD IS HIGH...AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW.
WITH THIS IN MIND...FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL STICK CLOSE TO OUR
CONTINUITY AND BLENDED GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE (20-30%) POPS FOR SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TREND BACK TOWARD DRIER
WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL OVERALL...WITH A NOMINALLY
COOLER PERIOD ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL
SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY/MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR TONIGHT, SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE S. TIER AND BLACK RIVER
VALLEY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG IMPACTING ANY TERMINALS.
VFR WILL CONTINUE AT ALL AREA TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
MODEST CHOP AND WAVE ACTION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT, WITH MINIMAL
WINDS AND WAVES WEDNESDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
LAKES THURSDAY, WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME MODEST CHOP AS WINDS BECOME
NNE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS SOUTH FRIDAY
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES ON THE LAKES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
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