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FXUS61 KBUF 100940
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
540 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE, WHILE NIGHTS REMAIN COOL AND COMFORTABLE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING ACROSS THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, BUT WILL REMAIN THIN
ENOUGH TO STILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MORE DENSE
CIRRUS REMAINING WELL WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
TONIGHT, MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND A FEW SPOTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIE OVERHEAD
OF THE FORECAST AREA DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
HOWEVER WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER OVERHEAD
AHEAD OF A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE FROM THE JAMES
BAY TO QUEBEC AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SLIDING FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY.
OVERALL, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO
PERSIST LATE WEEK AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, SUPPORTING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS ALLUDED TO PREVIOUSLY, A TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN CANADA WILL REAMPLIFY AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THIS BEING SAID, THERE CONTINUES TO
REMAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH STRENGTH,
TIMING AND DURATION WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT AND THEREFORE THIS
TRANSLATE TO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY. KEEPING THIS IN
MIND, STUCK WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THUS, EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING DRY WEATHER
TO RETURN TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING ACROSS
THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LOCAL IFR. THE FOG
IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF AIRFIELDS. OTHERWISE,
VFR WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES.
PATCHY FOG AND LOCAL IFR WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND A
FEW LOCATIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
ANY OF THE TAF AIRFIELDS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AND
LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS.
MARINE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AT 12 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH WAVES RUNNING 2 FEET OR LESS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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