300
FXUS61 KBUF 101740
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
140 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
FAIR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUES TODAY, A WEAKENING FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL COME ALONG LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOME FAIR WEATHER CU AND CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN THAT
FANTASTIC WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY.
TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE ACROSS QUEBEC
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL DRIFT OUT ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FAIR DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF SATURDAY...WITH
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY LATE SATURDAY AS AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...
WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
LATER IN THE WEEKEND THE GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE RE-
AMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS OUR REGION...HOWEVER A
RATHER LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD AND LACK OF CONSISTENCY PERSISTS WITH
RESPECT TO ITS EVENTUAL STRENGTH...TIMING...AND DURATION. MUCH LIKE
THE PAST FEW DAYS...POTENTIAL SCENARIOS CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM A
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW DROPPING ACROSS AND THEN LINGERING NEAR/OVER OUR
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A MUCH MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE
WAVE THAT REALLY ONLY AFFECTS OUR WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
GIVEN THIS...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS HIGH...
AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE CORRESPONDINGLY LOW.
WITH THIS IN MIND...FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL STICK CLOSE TO CONTINUITY
AND BLENDED GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THESE (40-50%) COMING SATURDAY NIGHT/
SUNDAY. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING SUNDAY. AFTER
MONDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL TREND BACK TOWARD DRIER WEATHER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION AT
ALL LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT A NOMINALLY COOLER PERIOD TO
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND ATTENDANT COOL
POOL BETWEEN SUNDAY/MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AT AREA
TERMINALS TODAY.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT, SOME LIMITED FOG IN THE VALLEYS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE S. TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
IMPACTS AT KJHW AFTER 09Z.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AND
LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
MARINE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AT 12 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH WAVES RUNNING 2 FEET OR LESS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
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