932
FXUS61 KBUF 102345
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
745 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
ARE FORECAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
ARE FORECAST. PATCHY VALLEY FOR IS POSSIBLE IN OUR TYPICAL
VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND BLACK RIVER VALLEY.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE ACROSS QUEBEC
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL DRIFT OUT ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FAIR DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF SATURDAY...WITH
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY LATE SATURDAY AS AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...
WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LATER IN THE WEEKEND THE GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE RE-
AMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS OUR REGION...HOWEVER A
RATHER LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD AND LACK OF CONSISTENCY PERSISTS WITH
RESPECT TO ITS EVENTUAL STRENGTH...TIMING...AND DURATION. MUCH LIKE
THE PAST FEW DAYS...POTENTIAL SCENARIOS CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM A
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW DROPPING ACROSS AND THEN LINGERING NEAR/OVER OUR
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A MUCH MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE
WAVE THAT REALLY ONLY AFFECTS OUR WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
GIVEN THIS...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS HIGH...
AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE CORRESPONDINGLY LOW.
WITH THIS IN MIND...FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL STICK CLOSE TO CONTINUITY
AND BLENDED GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THESE (40-50%) COMING SATURDAY NIGHT/
SUNDAY. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING SUNDAY. AFTER
MONDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL TREND BACK TOWARD DRIER WEATHER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION AT
ALL LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT A NOMINALLY COOLER PERIOD TO
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND ATTENDANT COOL
POOL BETWEEN SUNDAY/MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KJHW WHICH MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
FOG WILL ERODE THROUGH MID-MORNING, AND WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AND
LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
MARINE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AT 12 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH WAVES RUNNING 2 FEET OR LESS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/HSK
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...AR/HSK
MARINE...AR
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