575
FXUS61 KBUF 110533
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
133 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT,
HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE FORECAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY, BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF SUPPORT WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER.
MAINLY CLEAR WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY, A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER
OVERHEAD AHEAD OF A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY. AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE FROM
THE JAMES BAY TO QUEBEC AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY. OVERALL, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD EXPECT DRY
WEATHER TO PERSIST LATE WEEK AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
THE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN CANADA WILL
REAMPLIFY AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, RESULTING IN A SURFACE LOW TO SLIDE EAST OVER
NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND SUPPORT WILL LIE. THEN EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DISCREPANCIES WITH
TIMING AND STRENGTH, AND THEREFORE THIS TRANSLATE TO LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY. KEEPING THIS IN MIND, STUCK WITH THE NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS. THUS, EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW. IF THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND, EXPECT A WETTER
SOLUTION. HOWEVER, IF BROAD SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN. THIS BEING SAID, THE FORECAST RESEMBLES THE NATIONAL BLEND
OF MODELS.
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING DRY WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KJHW
WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS.
FOG WILL ERODE THROUGH MID THURSDAY MORNING, AND WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE REST OF THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AND
LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
MARINE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AT 12 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH WAVES RUNNING 2 FEET OR LESS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...AR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page