672
FXUS61 KBUF 120517
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
117 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY NIGHT.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT, KEEPING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE NEXT MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY
MORNING WILL SUPPORT A WEAKENING ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PROVIDED THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE
SURFACE FRONT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS EXITING THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS EXITS SUNDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN QUEBEC WILL EXPAND SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING DRY WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE, PLACING ITS RIDGE TO SPAN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, OVERALL EXPECT A PERIOD OF PROLONGED DRY
WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID TO
LATE SEPTEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOME VALLEY FOG MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KJHW AFTER 09Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
WEATHER EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS.
TODAY, VFR CONDITIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PASSING SFC HIGH TO
THE NORTH. AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
INLAND FROM THE LAKES ONCE AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...VFR. VALLEY FOG LATE MAY BRING SOME LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE MORNING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY WITH MINIMAL WAVE ACTION. A COLD
FRONT WILL NEAR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND THEN DROP
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT TO
MODEST CHOP SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT SUB SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD LIGHT WINDS AND WAVE ACTION THEN IS EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...AR/SW/TMA
MARINE...AR/TMA
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