696
FXUS61 KBUF 121754
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
154 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CU ACROSS
WESTERN NY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST US. FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG
INTO EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH WESTERN NY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY, BUT
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LITTLE TO NONE WITH POOR LAPSE RATES
LIMITING MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY CLOSER TO THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL FORCING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SUPPORTING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CLEAR THE WAY FOR
THE NEXT AREA OF CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY, WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AMPLIFYING TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY THEN
SLOWLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE BEGINNING OF WHAT WILL
BE YET ANOTHER PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. OUR AREA WILL
REMAIN ON THE VERY WESTERN FRINGE OF THE MODERATELY COOLER AIR MASS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, THUS THERE
WON'T BE MUCH, IF ANY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OR HUMIDITY
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS AND
CONTINUED COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO OPEN THE PERIOD,
EFFECTIVELY UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE CAUSING IT TO BECOME MORE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ALLOWING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE AXIS TO 'LEAN' EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION,
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER AND A
GRADUAL DAY-TO-DAY WARMING WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDING FIRM AND DEFLECTING WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST, KEEPING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTACT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS CONSIDERABLY BY THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE BIG 3 SHOWING LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE LATE WEEK PATTERN. NBM
SHOWS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TRYING TO ENCROACH ON THE AREA BY
FRIDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DISAGREEMENT, THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF AVERAGE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TERMINALS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT
TO OUT OF THE NORTH WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON.
LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT, BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN >8 KFT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, WITH LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE MORNING
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY WITH MINIMAL WAVE ACTION. A COLD
FRONT WILL NEAR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND THEN DROP
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT TO
MODEST CHOP SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT SUB SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD LIGHT WINDS AND WAVE ACTION THEN IS EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BROTHERS/TMA
NEAR TERM...BROTHERS
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BROTHERS
MARINE...AR/TMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page