245
FXUS61 KBUF 131045
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
645 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DUE TO A PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE, DRY FAIR
WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA, DRAGGING ITS TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
RATHER LIMITED AS WITH LITTLE TO NONE PRECIPITATION TOTALS DUE TO
POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DUE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
ALL THIS BEING SAID, THE FIRST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WON'T BE A
COMPLETE WASH OUT AND WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SUPPORTING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION
SUNDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BACK ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO OPEN THE PERIOD,
EFFECTIVELY UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE CAUSING IT TO BECOME MORE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ALLOWING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE AXIS TO 'LEAN' EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION,
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER AND A
GRADUAL DAY-TO-DAY WARMING WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDING FIRM AND DEFLECTING WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST, KEEPING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTACT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS CONSIDERABLY BY THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE BIG 3 SHOWING LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE LATE WEEK PATTERN. NBM
SHOWS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TRYING TO ENCROACH ON THE AREA BY
FRIDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DISAGREEMENT, THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF AVERAGE.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL, DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER DUE TO
AN INCOMING FRONT THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED VALLEY FOR HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, BURNING OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
AS THE DAY CONTINUES, CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS WELL
AS THE CHANCE FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER. DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND CHANCE FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER, EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL. THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, AGAIN
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE MORNING
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME LIGHT TO MODEST CHOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A PASSING WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE CHOP,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS AND SET UP RESIDENCY
OVERHEAD OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES WILL PREVAIL.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page