301
FXUS61 KBUF 132353
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
753 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE PASSING FAR TO THE NORTH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH
OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL PIVOT SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH SUNDAY.
SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY CLEAR OUT FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING BEHIND
A PASSING COLD FRONT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME OVERNIGHT VALLEY
FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS THE BASE OF THE 500MB TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MORE IN THE WAY OF DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLE AS THERE IS LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE
PASSING FRONT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER SPRAWLING AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY
FORECAST GOING ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS THE CENTER OF
THE LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE DRIFTS FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY
SUNDAY NIGHT TO OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY. AS AN
AMPLIFYING MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
STARTS TO BUILD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD
EFFECTIVELY UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE CAUSING IT TO BECOME MORE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS 'LEANING' EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE WEAK AREA OF STALLED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER WITH STACKED
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE, DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN INTACT.
RISING HEIGHTS/DEEPER SUBSIDENCE OWED TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
WILL ALSO HELP GIVE TEMPERATURES AN ADDED BOOST, WITH READINGS SOME
10 TO EVEN 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY TUESDAY, WHICH TRANSLATES TO
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND LOWER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. MID 80S FOR THOSE TRADITIONALLY
WARMER SPOTS. NIGHTS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY COOL WITH JUST THE
TYPICAL OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA TO START THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, EVENTUALLY BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE BY THURSDAY AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA ACTING TO DEFLECT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER INTACT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD, WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY APPROACHING AREAS
TO OUR SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE FRIDAY, WHILE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN PARKED JUST TO OUR WEST FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE WEEK
PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THESE FEATURES
SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTACT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS CONSIDERABLY BY THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD WITH
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE PLACEMENT
OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND THUS OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION. NBM HAS
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PAINTED IN ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING MORE TOWARD AVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF WESTERN NY WILL CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP IN THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CIGS IN THE AREA
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IMPACTING AT KART IS LOW. WHERE IT DOES
CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG WILL DEVELOP, INCLUDING NEAR JHW. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
RESTRICTIONS FOR THE VSBYS TO IFR AT TIMES AT JHW IF FOG IS ABLE TO
SPREAD TO THE TERMINAL.
AREAWIDE VFR WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
LIGHT BREEZES AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION EXPECTED ON THE LAKES THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK
PASSING COLD FRONT.
A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES
ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BIT MORE
CHOP ON THE WATERS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE, THOUGH IN GENERAL SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PP
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PP/SW
MARINE...PP
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