790
FXUS61 KBUF 141843
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
243 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
FROM CANADA WILL ENSURE FAIR DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN FEEL SUMMER-LIKE AT
TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE THE REGION COOLS TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT BETWEEN A DEPARTING TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM ON/QC WILL CONTINUE
TO WASH OUT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. JUST A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. NOT MUCH OF AN
AIRMASS CHANGE NOTED WITH THE FRONT SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM, AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-
SEPTEMBER.
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND SOME REMNANT MOISTURE IN THE S. TIER
AND BLACK RIVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH VSBYS DOWN TO 1/4SM.
ELSEWHERE PATCHY RADIATION FOG CAN BE EXPECTED, WHICH SHOULD BURN
OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND KEEPING DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. THE LOW WILL START TO TREK
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, THEN TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS OUR AREA, THE LOW
WILL WEAKEN FURTHER BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT GETS SHUNTED
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL TRY TO
MAKE A RUN AS FAR NORTHWEST AS SOUTHEASTERN NYS LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
OUR AREA REMAINS DRY THURSDAY AS THE REMNANT TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL PRESS
SOUTH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION, THE BETTER FORCING
WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST, YET WITH STILL ONLY LIMITED AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, ANY RAINFALL APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE
"NON-IMPACTFUL." COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY, WITH A
COOLER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WORK
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PATTERN, WHICH DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR ANYONE WISHING FOR SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. STRONG AREA OF SPRAWLING
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS BY SUNDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST POSSIBLY ALLOWING A DISORGANIZED AND WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TO TRY TO MAKE SOME EASTWARD
PROGRESSION, PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT INTO OUR
AREA BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND (LATEST NBM HAS SCHC TO LOW
CHC POPS BY SUNDAY). SURPRISE, SURPRISE...TAKING A GLANCE AT THE
LATEST 12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE COMING IN, THESE RAIN CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY HAVE BEEN SHOVED A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING AS SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
MAIN CONCERN FOR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE WILL BE IN
FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN LOCALIZED LIFR FOG
REDEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO, WHICH IS LIKELY TO IMPACT VSBYS AT KJHW. CONSIDERABLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS FROM RADIATION FOG IN OTHER
LOCATIONS AND TAFS MAY REQUIRE FREQUENT AMDS AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES.
ANY OVERNIGHT FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE FOLLOWING THE
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THE RADIATION FOG WILL CLEAR OUT FIRST, WITH
THE VALLEY FOG TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15Z.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
LIGHT BREEZES AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION EXPECTED ON THE LAKES THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION BEHIND A
WEAK PASSING COLD FRONT.
A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BIT MORE CHOP
ON THE WATERS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE. WHILE WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH
15KTS ON THE WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT, SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PP
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP
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