376
FXUS61 KBUF 151053
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
653 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS AND SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY, SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEK AND
LAST THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE JAMES BAY EXPANDS SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING, LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, BLACK RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME VALLEY FOG AND
RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THIS FOG HAS EXPANDED AND BECAME
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO 1/4SM. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST.
HOWEVER, A NORTHEAST WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH SIMILAR, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. FOG WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE. WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THERE MAY BE SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE PERIOD, AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW
MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION, BUT OTHERWISE FAIR SKIES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
OUR AREA REMAINS DRY THURSDAY AS THE REMNANT TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL PRESS
SOUTH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION, THE BETTER FORCING
WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST, YET WITH STILL ONLY LIMITED AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, ANY RAINFALL APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE
"NON-IMPACTFUL." COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY, WITH A
COOLER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WORK
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PATTERN, WHICH DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR ANYONE WISHING FOR SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. STRONG AREA OF SPRAWLING
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS BY SUNDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST POSSIBLY ALLOWING A DISORGANIZED AND WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TO TRY TO MAKE SOME EASTWARD
PROGRESSION, PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT INTO OUR
AREA BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND (LATEST NBM HAS SCHC TO LOW
CHC POPS BY SUNDAY). SURPRISE, SURPRISE...TAKING A GLANCE AT THE
LATEST 12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE COMING IN, THESE RAIN CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY HAVE BEEN SHOVED A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND.
HOWEVER, SOME RADIATION AND VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. WITHIN FOG, LOCALIZED LIFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TODAY. THE RADIATION FOG WILL CLEAR
OUT FIRST, WITH THE VALLEY FOG TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 6Z TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
WEAK LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AS
THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BIT MORE CHOP ON THE
WATERS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE. WHILE WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH 15KTS
ON THE WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON, SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ/PP
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