204
FXUS61 KBUF 152340
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
740 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY
AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS, BUT MORE NOTABLY
A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS LARGE AREA OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC DRIFTS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN, WITH SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MID MORNING
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, SOME UPPER 40S
HIGHER TERRAIN.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. A LIGHTER SYNOPTIC FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND INLAND OF LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS OWED TO AN
UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH WILL SUPPRESS DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE CAROLINAS TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE
THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUD COVER AT TIMES, SUMMER-
LIKE WARMTH AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONCURRENTLY TO THE NORTH, A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ON/QC WILL DRAG A SFC LOW
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE LABRADOR SEA. THIS WILL FORCE A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD RESULT UP THE
N. COUNTRY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE/FORCING,
FOR MOST THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE COOLDOWN BACK TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
CAA BEHIND FRIDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION HEADED INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN-SOURCED HIGH PRESSURE
RAPIDLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. A STEEP TEMP GRADIENT
ALOFT NOTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AMONG THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES WITH A STACKED LOW TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AT THE SAME TIME. THIS MAY LEAD TO A NIGHT WHERE LOWS RANGE
FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE N. COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ACROSS
WNY DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS GRADIENT SETS UP.
MOVING FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND, THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER IN PLACE WITH TEMPS RISING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WELL
INTO SUNDAY. THE REMNANT WAVE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED STACKED LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTRODUCE SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GIVEN
THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM HOWEVER, SUBSTANTIATIVE
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL LOOKS 'UNLIKELY' WITH EVEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
00Z LREF CLUSTERS ADVERTISING QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY <0.5" THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT,
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL AGAIN BE THE FORMATION OF VALLEY FOG
BRINGING LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER (MAY IMPACT
KJHW). SOME GENERALIZED PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OTHER AREAS
AS WELL, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND LOCATION REMAINS LOW.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
MORE CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
ACROSS THE TUG HILL BY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
EXPECT SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS TO PERSIST
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, PRODUCING A MODERATE CHOP ACROSS
THESE AREAS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE. WINDS WILL RELAX LATER
TONIGHT, WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVE ACTION EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...HSK/JM
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...HSK/JM
MARINE...JM
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