257
FXUS61 KBUF 160536
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
136 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ANOTHER DRY AND WARM
DAY TODAY WITH SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS INLAND FROM THE LAKES, BUT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MOST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SPREADS SOME
MOISTURE NORTHWARD, BUT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE-BASED RIDGING DRAPED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE OUT A BIT ABOVE NORMAL (PARTICULARLY WITH
RESPECT TO DAYTIME HIGHS).
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BROAD/FLAT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
ACROSS LABRADOR AND OUT TO SEA...WITH ITS TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSING OUR AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WHILE WEAK...THIS FEATURE MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING TO GENERATE A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...
FOR WHICH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED FROM PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY...STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE AND A A SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR
REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS SETTLING BACK BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
THE CASE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN LIGHTENING WINDS AND THE COOLEST
PORTION OF THIS NEW AIRMASS MAY ALLOW LOWS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MOVING ON INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP FAIR DRY WEATHER INTACT ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH THEN
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BACK
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE AND
WEAKENING NATURE OF THIS NEXT FEATURE...DON'T EXPECT IT TO BRING ANY
TANGIBLE RELIEF FROM THE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL ALLOW THE
FORMATION OF VALLEY FOG BRINGING LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
ABOUT 13Z, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER (MAYBE IMPACTING
KJHW). SOME GENERALIZED PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OTHER
AREAS AS WELL, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND LOCATION
REMAINS LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. FEW-SCT040
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE LAKES BY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVE ACTION EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HSK/JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/TMA
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