034
FXUS61 KBUF 011505
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1105 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING SOME FROST AND FREEZE
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SOAR BACK TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR FRIDAY, AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD OWED TO STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH
WILL REMAIN POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS
IT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH QUEBEC TO NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. COOL ENOUGH IN FACT THAT SOME AREAS
WILL EXPERIENCE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE THE FREEZE
WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR LEWIS COUNTY, WHERE SOME AREAS WILL
DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. A FROST ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION,
WITH AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORE SEEING THE BEST FROST POTENTIAL
WHERE LOWS MAY DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S, ESPECIALLY ON
TUG HILL. A FROST ADVISORY WAS ALSO ISSUED ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER FOR CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S EXPECTED THERE. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WYOMING AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES, AND FOR PORTIONS OF
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORE. WILL HAVE A MENTION IN
THE HWO FOR THIS POSSIBILITY, HOWEVER IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR
MORE OF A WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS ANY OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS,
A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED BY A LATER SHIFT.
AFTER A COOL START THURSDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS WILL START THE WAA PROCESS ACROSS
WESTERN NY WHERE HIGHS WILL BUMP BACK UP ABOVE AVERAGE, HOWEVER TO A
LESSER DEGREE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A STRONG 1032MB SFC HIGH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THURSDAY
EVENING WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A NOTABLE
WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MAINLY 40S FOR LOW
TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EAST OF BOTH LAKES. SOME MID 30S WITH PATCHY FROST CAN'T
BE RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS THOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
AMOUNT OF GRADIENT RETURN FLOW AND MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL BE CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN AREAS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE UNDER A STRONG 590DM RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
DRY WEATHER TO LAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY OCTOBER. A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME AND SUPPRESS THE HIGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS
WILL INEVITABLY FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND EXPECTED COOLDOWN IN TOW, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN NBM'S LOW-END POPS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THOUGH EXPECT THIS TIMING TO BECOME
BETTER REFINED AS THE DETAILS COME INTO FOCUS.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS
MAY REACH 15-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE START OF
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY, AND FAR INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS EAST OF KJHW.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG AND LOCALIZED IFR
POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
MARINE
A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT WITH FRESH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE CANADIAN HIGH AND TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS OFF THE EAST
COAST. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE AS OUTLINED BELOW.
WIND DIRECTION WILL START TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND RELAX AS THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO FAR
SOUTHERN QUEBEC LATER TONIGHT, THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY.
THE CHOPPIER WAVE ACTION WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND BECOME DIRECTED
MORE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT TO MODEST BREEZES
AND NO MORE THAN MAINLY LIGHT CHOP AT TIMES THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ001>005.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ006-007-020-021.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LOZ044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
SYNOPSIS...JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/PP/TMA
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