437
FXUS61 KBUF 011757
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
157 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING SOME FROST AND FREEZE
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SOAR BACK TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR FRIDAY, AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
ADVANCING HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM WARM ADVECTION OCCURING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN THIN ENOUGH TO
BRING ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS FOR LEWIS
COUNTY, WHERE SOME AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S. A FROST
ADVISORY REMAINS FOR THE REST OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION,
WITH INLAND AREAS SEEING THE BEST FROST POTENTIAL WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S, ESPECIALLY ON TUG HILL. A FROST ADVISORY
ALSO REMAINS FOR CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED THERE. LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
LAKESHORES WILL BE AROUND 40 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR A WARMING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS
WILL START THE WAA PROCESS ACROSS WESTERN NY WHERE HIGHS WILL BUMP
BACK UP ABOVE AVERAGE, HOWEVER TO A LESSER DEGREE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO FRIDAY MORNING, A RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN
DAY TO DAY WARMING THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO START THE NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM JAMES BAY. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
IN AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT, AND NOTABLY MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARDS MID-WEEK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN
THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION, AND THEREFORE MAINTAINED A
LOW CHANCE (20-40%) MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS
WILL REACH 20 KNOTS THROUGH 21Z, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, BUT LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT EXPECTED AT TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG AND LOCALIZED IFR
POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
MARINE
A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT WITH FRESH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE CANADIAN HIGH AND TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS OFF THE EAST
COAST. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE AS OUTLINED BELOW.
WIND DIRECTION WILL START TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND RELAX AS THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO FAR
SOUTHERN QUEBEC LATER TONIGHT, THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY.
THE CHOPPIER WAVE ACTION WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND BECOME DIRECTED
MORE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT TO MODEST BREEZES
AND NO MORE THAN MAINLY LIGHT CHOP AT TIMES THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ001>005.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ006-007-020-021.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LOZ044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
SYNOPSIS...JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...JM/PP/TMA
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