695
FXUS61 KBUF 021812
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
212 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A DAY-TO-DAY WARMING TREND WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY, WHILE MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. IT WILL NOT
BE AS CHILLY TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS, AND
MAYBE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF LEWIS COUNTY.
FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS
WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN
WARM WEATHER. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S, POSSIBLY EVEN REACHING THE MID 80S SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY, WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW
ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES WILL THEN APPROACH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE MID-WEST AND OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF FORCING AND GULF
MOISTURE WILL BRING MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN
TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DETAILS OF THE
RAIN.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, THE WORK WEEK WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS INTACT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH JUST SOME THIN UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD
AT TIMES. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO SLOWLY INCREASE
TONIGHT, THERE MAY BE SOME VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF KJHW.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG AND LOCALIZED IFR
POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PRODUCE NO MORE THAN MAINLY LIGHT CHOP AT TIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND,
HOWEVER FLOW WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH MUCH OF THE WAVE ACTION DIRECTED INTO OUR OPEN LAKE WATERS
AND CANADIAN WATERS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/TMA
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