281
FXUS61 KBUF 031043
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
643 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A DAY-TO-DAY WARMING TREND WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LARGE AREA OF EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WHILE MAINTAINING DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
A FEW FAIR-WEATHER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY BLOSSOM ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE FOR TODAY. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY
UNDER A WARMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS COMBINED
WITH GOOD DIURNAL MIXING DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS WILL HELP
BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS UPWARDS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC
MAY BRING A SOME EXTRA CLOUDS TOWARD NORTH-CENTRAL NY AND THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT, WHILE SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DURING THIS PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY SITUATED ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTLINES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
OFFSHORE...WHILE THE AXIS OF AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING
TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES.
THE RESULTING LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND WARM/DRY AIRMASS WILL
RESULT IN FAIR DRY WEATHER AND SUMMERLIKE WARMTH THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO CLIMB TO ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AREAWIDE (UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER-MID 80S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS) BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHILE NIGHTLY LOWS WILL
RANGE SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (NEAR 50 FAR INTERIOR TO MID-
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS) BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN ATTENDANT
BROAD SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATER TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT-EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT COUPLED WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FAIRLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ATTENDANT TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY ALSO POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
FAR WNY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY
DRY PATTERN WE'VE BEEN IN FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS...THIS RAINFALL
WOULD BE MUCH-WELCOMED...EVEN IF IT DOESN'T CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE A
TRUE DROUGHT-BUSTER.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THEN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA
FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK TO A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THIS PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT DAYTIME HIGHS MAY NOT MAKE
IT OUT OF THE 50S ON AT LEAST ONE OF WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY DEPENDING
UPON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT...AS
WELL AS THE EXTENT OF ANY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE AND LAKE-DRIVEN CLOUD
COVER.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LARGE AREA OF EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT WHILE MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
PASSING CIRRUS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME FAIR-WEATHER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS (FEW/SCT ~040) MAY BLOSSOM ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AND LOCALIZED IFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO AGAIN STAY MAINLY EAST OF KJHW.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG AND LOCALIZED IFR
POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS (12-15 KNOTS) WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN
LAKE ERIE AND THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SOME MODERATE CHOP TO THE NORTHEASTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO, HOWEVER WITH A MAINLY SOUTHERLY OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT,
HIGHER WAVES WILL REMAIN FURTHER OFFSHORE OF OUR EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO NEARSHORE ZONE.
OTHERWISE, PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, RESULTING
IN LITTLE TO NO WAVE ACTION. WITH A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW IN PLACE,
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FLIP TO ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON AS WEAK LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DEVELOP.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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