538
FXUS61 KBUF 032322
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
722 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DAY TO DAY WARMING. NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
EXPANSIVE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINTAINING
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
SFC RIDGE ALONG THE MID-ALANTIC WILL EVER SO SLOWLY DRIFT OUT TO SEA
BUT WILL MAINTAIN FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERAL OF
THE RIDGE WHICH WILL THEN PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO NEAR THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BUT DRY WEATHER
WILL 'LIKELY' PREVAIL FOR MUCH THE NIGHT. TIMING OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND THEN SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT WILL DETERMINE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, AND OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE
EXTREMELY DRY PATTERN WE'VE BEEN IN FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS...THIS
RAINFALL WOULD BE MUCH-WELCOMED...EVEN IF IT DOESN'T CURRENTLY
APPEAR TO BE A TRUE DROUGHT-BUSTER.
ANOTHER STRONG SFC RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT FAIR DRY WEATHER
THROUGH ATLEAST FRIDAY. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN WE WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND AND THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS,
THOUGH WITH THE CONTINUED VERY DRY AIRMASS, EXPANSION OF FOG TO
ACROSS THE KJHW AIRFIELD IS LOW.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS WITH A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING REGIONWIDE, BEFORE A LAKE BREEZE PUSHES PAST KROC
IN THE MID AFTERNOON, SENDING WINDS TO A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE
ONTARIO, INCLUDING KROC.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG AND LOCALIZED
IFR POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS.
MARINE
WEAK GRADIENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN WINDS GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS WITH DIURNAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY. WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES NEEDED ON LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...TMA
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