071
FXUS61 KBUF 052244
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
644 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AS IT CROSSES
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND MUCH
COOLER WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING ANOTHER DRY AND MILD NIGHT, WITH JUST A MODEST INCREASE IN
HIGH CIRRUS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP BACK
INTO THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST AREAS, WITH SOME UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND LEWIS COUNTY.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL AMOUNT OF PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY ALONG THE
UPPER GENESEE AND UPPER ALLEGHENY RIVER BASINS.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN MOST AREAS, SOME 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR EARLY OCTOBER. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING US THIS CURRENT STRETCH OF
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL SHUFFLE FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FURTHER UPSTREAM, A
SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONCURRENTLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A POTENT COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH A SOLID BOUT OF
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ON TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COOLDOWN BY WEDNESDAY.
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...DRY WEATHER SHOULD HOLD
OUT AREAWIDE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE SOME LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY OR AN ISOLATED TSTORM LATER IN
THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT AND
INCREASING LLJ. THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND HIGHER TSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL COME AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES DEEPER INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WHICH COULD SLOW IT AND ENHANCE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THOUGH TIMING OF THIS WAVE STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. NONETHELESS, A WIDESPREAD 0.5"-1" OF RAIN IS LIKELY,
WHILE NBM PROBABILITIES OF 24HR QPF >1" HAVE STEADILY INCREASED OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS TO ABOUT 40-60% IN MOST AREAS.
A VERY DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER POLAR CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL
MOVE IN ON THE HEELS OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, AS STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE JUST ABOUT
ALL OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO ABOUT 0C (CLOSER TO -2C IN THE N. COUNTRY) WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
THE CENTER OF THE STRONG 1033MB SFC HIGH WILL BE SPRAWLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PROMOTING
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WHILE THE COOL AIRMASS REMAINS OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A NIGHT WITH MIN TS IN THE 30S AND
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST AT ELEVATIONS AROUND 1500-2000' OR HIGHER,
THOUGH AREAS OF FROST CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE LAKE PLAINS AS WELL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD
THURSDAY WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME TO A
STRONGER CONSENSUS THAT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS
GRIP ON THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PREVENTING ANY SHOWERS FROM
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA FROM EXTENDING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. LATEST 13Z NBM IS NOW ALMOST ENTIRELY DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
AFTER ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL DAY THURSDAY A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST BACK TOWARDS OR EVEN
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH
NOT ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH CURRENTLY BEING
OBSERVED.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST JUST
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT NOTHING MORE
THAN SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS DRIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AT TIMES OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH VFR PREVAILING. THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING EAST OF KJHW, BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
LOW.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY IN WESTERN NY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...DIMINISHING LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLIES TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY PICK
UP TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CHOP...THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW WILL DIRECT
THE GREATEST WAVE ACTION ACROSS CANADIAN WATERS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...BRINGING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IN ITS WAKE...WINDS WILL
FRESHEN AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...LIKELY BRINGING ADVISORY-WORTHY CONDITIONS TO
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/HSK
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/JJR
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