948
FXUS61 KBUF 071911
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
311 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EASE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND IN THE PROCESS WILL GENERATE SOME
DESPERATELY- NEEDED RAINFALL. IN ITS WAKE...STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND PROVIDE US WITH DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE FALL SO FAR. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS BOTH LIKELY TO FEATURE A FROST OR FREEZE ACROSS
MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF SHOWERS FROM MICHIGAN TO ONTARIO
AND THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA
OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS NIAGARA AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES
THIS MORNING, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.50-1.80".
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO TO CENTRAL LAKE
ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
REGION AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS EVENING. THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS TRENDED DOWN WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY, HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS STILL PRONE TO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. ANAFRONTAL
LIGHT RAIN FROM MICHIGAN TO ONTARIO WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT,
WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.50-1.00" ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NY, AND 1-1.50" ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTH- CENTRAL NY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY. A COOL, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN CHILLY AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, AN
ABRUPT CHANGE FROM OUR VERY WARM WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND, WHILE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CANADIAN-SOURCED HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE BUILDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING A RETURN TO DRY, BUT NOTABLY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THIS PERIOD, WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES BEING
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
A SECONDARY SHOT OF EVEN COOLER AIR FLOWING INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BEHIND IT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO
BETWEEN -2C AND -5C (COLDEST NORTH COUNTRY) FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE TWO MAIN FACTORS THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 1. SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE FROM FLOW ALOFT WITH
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH STILL LOCATED WELL TO OUR WEST
OVER MICHIGAN. 2. THIS WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED, HOWEVER DESPITE
THE PLETHORA OF DRY AIR, THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME EXTRA LAKE CLOUDS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL FROST COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE OWED TO
THESE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS, HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL
THAT OUR NORMAL COLDER AREAS SEE A FREEZE.
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WHICH WILL EQUATE TO THE TUG HILL AND
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE MID/UPPER 40S UNDER FULL
SUNSHINE. CENTER OF THE COOL CANADIAN HIGH WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
FROM WESTERN TO EASTERN NY THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER AN ALREADY CHILLY
DAY TO START AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP,
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BACK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S AND LOWER
(MID/UPPER 20S NORMALLY COLDER AREAS), POSSIBLY REQUIRING
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AREAWIDE. WAA WILL BEGIN ALOFT SECOND HALF OF
THURSDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER WITH A STOUT RADIATIONAL INVERSION IN PLACE,
THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
AFTER A CHILLY START FRIDAY MORNING, DIURNAL HEATING UNDER NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THE RADIATIONAL INVERSION ALLOWING
THE RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR AVERAGE READINGS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS FORECAST MODELS
DIVERGE WITH THE TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COASTLINE AND THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND NORTHEAST.
GUIDANCE IS IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR A GOOD PART OF NEXT
WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE RUNS INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND EC
BRING A COASTAL LOW TO THE MID-ATALNTIC REGION WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE, MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY
IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AND WINDS WILL CHANGE TO THE NORTHWEST
BY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED JUST
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH SHOULD BE 2-4 HOURS AT
ANY GIVEN SITE. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION QUICKLY WITH
FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MARINE
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY EASE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING...BRINGING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IN ITS
WAKE... WINDS WILL FRESHEN AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN
NORTHERLY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADVISORY-
WORTHY CONDITIONS TO AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO MUCH OF THE TIME BETWEEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF DUNKIRK ON LAKE ERIE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/JJR
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