400
FXUS61 KBUF 072346
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
746 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER, ALONG WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
FALL SO FAR. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS BOTH LIKELY TO FEATURE
A FROST OR FREEZE ACROSS MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHARP COLD FRONT ENTERING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. ANAFRONTAL LIGHT RAIN
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT
GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH, WITH LESS AMOUNTS CLOSER TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY. A COOL, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN CHILLY AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, AN
ABRUPT CHANGE FROM OUR VERY WARM WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND,
WHILE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CANADIAN-SOURCED HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A
RETURN TO DRY, BUT NOTABLY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THIS
PERIOD, WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES BEING THE
MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
A SECONDARY SHOT OF EVEN COOLER AIR FLOWING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BEHIND IT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO BETWEEN -2C
AND -5C (COLDEST NORTH COUNTRY) FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THERE ARE TWO MAIN FACTORS THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM TANKING FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 1. SURFACE WINDS WILL
LIKELY NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE FROM FLOW ALOFT WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH STILL LOCATED WELL TO OUR WEST OVER
MICHIGAN. 2. THIS WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED, HOWEVER DESPITE THE
PLETHORA OF DRY AIR, THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME
EXTRA LAKE CLOUDS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
FROST COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE OWED TO THESE TWO
AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS, HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT OUR
NORMAL COLDER AREAS SEE A FREEZE.
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WHICH WILL EQUATE TO THE TUG HILL AND
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE MID/UPPER 40S UNDER FULL
SUNSHINE. CENTER OF THE COOL CANADIAN HIGH WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
FROM WESTERN TO EASTERN NY THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER AN ALREADY CHILLY
DAY TO START AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP,
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BACK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S AND LOWER
(MID/UPPER 20S NORMALLY COLDER AREAS), POSSIBLY REQUIRING
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AREAWIDE. WAA WILL BEGIN ALOFT SECOND HALF OF
THURSDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER WITH A STOUT RADIATIONAL INVERSION IN PLACE,
THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
AFTER A CHILLY START FRIDAY MORNING, DIURNAL HEATING UNDER NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THE RADIATIONAL INVERSION ALLOWING
THE RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR AVERAGE READINGS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS FORECAST MODELS
DIVERGE WITH THE TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COASTLINE AND THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND NORTHEAST.
GUIDANCE IS IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR A GOOD PART OF NEXT
WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE RUNS INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND EC
BRING A COASTAL LOW TO THE MID-ATALNTIC REGION WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE, MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY
IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION AND WINDS WILL CHANGE TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING. A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION QUICKLY
WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MARINE
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL EASE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL FRESHEN AND VEER TO
NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING ADVISORY-WORTHY CONDITIONS AS OUTLINED BELOW TO AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MUCH OF THE TIME BETWEEN
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND TO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF DUNKIRK
ON LAKE ERIE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...HSK/TMA
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...HSK/TMA
MARINE...HSK/JJR/TMA
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