859
FXUS61 KBUF 081022
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
622 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND
THURSDAY AND PROVIDE US WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE FALL SO FAR. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE
50S ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...SOME AREAS WILL SEE A FROST OR
FREEZE TONIGHT...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE THEN LIKELY
FOLLOWING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF THIS WRITING...THE LAST OF THE SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS TRAILING YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT ARE JUST ABOUT OUT OF OUR
AREA...WITH A JUST FEW MORE OF THESE POSSIBLY BRUSHING INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF OSWEGO/LEWIS COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER.
AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE DAY THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
PIVOT ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED POOL OF COOLER AIR
CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION. UNDER THIS REGIME...THERE COULD
BE A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY AS THE TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...THE
DAY SHOULD BE DRY AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH COOLER/
DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE INCOMING
COOLER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN +1C TO
+3C BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WILL ONLY ALLOW TODAY'S
HIGH TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. COUPLED WITH A DECENT NORTHERLY
BREEZE...THIS WILL MAKE IT DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE FALL TODAY.
TONIGHT THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD...
WITH ITS CORE SETTLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND NEARBY
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. UNDER THIS REGIME A SLOWLY WEAKENING NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS COMBINED WITH
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES...AND TEMPERATURES TO GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR FROST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OSWEGO COUNTY...FOR
WHICH FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AS OUTLINED BELOW.
MEANWHILE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
FAVORABLE FOR FROST OVERALL. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR
THOSE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY BORDERING THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHERE A COMBINATION OF
LINGERING ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW AND/OR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
PATCHY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FROST FORMATION. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REST OF
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...WINDS AND CLOUD COVER BOTH LOOK TO BE A BIT
LESS...AND LIKELY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHES/AREAS OF FROST TO
DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ALSO
ISSUED SOME FROST ADVISORIES FOR AREAS FROM NORTHERN ERIE/GENESEE/
LIVINGSTON COUNTIES SOUTHWESTWARD.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A COOL FALL-LIKE DAY WILL BE IN FULL SWING THURSDAY BUT DRY AS THE
CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE
FULL-SUNSHINE, HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE FOUND IN THE 50S FOR MOST
LOCALES. IT WILL BE EVEN COOLER ACROSS THE TUG, AND ALSO WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WHERE MERCURY READINGS WILL PEAK IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIP OFF TO OUR EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL STILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THAT SAID...LOWS WILL BE FOUND IN THE 30S
AREAWIDE, WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS DIPPING BACK INTO THE 20S. GIVEN
THE SETUP...WILL EVENTUALLY NEED FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THIS PERIOD. AFTER THAT...WAA PROCESSES BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THEN STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SFC
RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST. OVERALL...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE
A FANTASTIC FALL DAY AFTER A CHILLY START. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL PEAK
IN THE LOW/MID 60S, MIGHT BE A TAD BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TUG (MID/UPPER 50S).
NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT, WAA RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE WITH CONTINUED MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE FOUND IN THE 40S TO MID/UPPER 30S IN SPOTS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SFC BASED RIDGING WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LOWER LAKES DRY AS WE HEAD
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER
ACROSS FAR WNY ON SATURDAY, AND THEN AFTER THAT A COASTAL LOW TRACKS
ALONG THE MID-ALANTIC AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. SPEAKING OF THE
COASTAL LOW...THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY OF THE
OVERALL IMPACTS, IF ANY AT ALL, WITH DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALL OVER
THE BOARD. HAVE HELD FAIRLY CLOSE TO NBM GUIDANCE WITH THIS UPDATE
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS (15%-30%) THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY...SFC
BASED RIDGING APPEARS TO TAKE BACK OVER WITH DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH MID-MORNING...LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN AND LIFT/
SCATTER OUT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE...WHICH WILL THEN LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MARINE
MODERATE NORTHERLIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A LITTLE TEMPORARY WEAKENING IN THE FLOW
THEN EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE WINDS PICK BACK UP A BIT AGAIN TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING ADVISORY-WORTHY CONDITIONS TO AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH TONIGHT...AND RATHER
CHOPPY (BUT MOSTLY SUB-ADVISORY TO VERY MARGINAL ADVISORY)
CONDITIONS TO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF DUNKIRK ON LAKE ERIE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ006.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ007-008.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ010>013-
019-085.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ020-021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
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