935
FXUS61 KBUF 131804
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
204 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
REACHING AS FAR WEST AS WNY. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FINGER LAKES WITH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS WNY. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT, SUPPORTING SEASONABLY COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BLANKET OF
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REIGON ALONG WITH RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREAS EAST OF THE FINGER LAKES WITH A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF ROCHESTER. SAID ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A
MID-LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MERGING WITH THE COASTAL LOW OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW POLEWARD OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON,
SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE FINGER LAKES INTO CENTRAL NY AND
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. ONLY A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN NY AS IT IS FARTHER
REMOVED FROM THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED, WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM ROCHESTER TO OLEAN.
TONIGHT, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MINOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS OSWEGO AND LEWIS COUNTIES, WHILE DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN NY. SOME PATCHY HILLTOP FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE
LOW STRATUS INTERSECTS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY, SUPPORTING DRY WEATHER TO
RETURN.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A SURFACE LOW PASSING ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY WILL BRING THE NEXT COLD
FRONT TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES
WESTERN NEW YORK, THERE WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE TO TAP IN,
SUPPORTING A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, COLD AIR WILL ADVECT IN ACROSS THE REGION
SUPPORTING SEASONABLE COOLER HIGHS. ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SUPPORTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS BEING SAID, THE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT FROM
THE SURFACE HIGH COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SEASONABLY COOLER
AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DROP
LOWS WELL INTO THE 30S AND UPPER 20S, THUS SUPPORTING FROST TO
DEVELOP.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL START TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS STARTING LATER FRIDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A BREAK OF MAINLY
DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH FOLLOWS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AMONG GUIDANCE FOR TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM SOME ON FRIDAY, AND WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEHIND THE PASSING WARM
FRONT. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SUNDAY WILL DETERMINE
HOW WARM THE TEMPERATURES CAN REACH.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE DELMARVA CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, PERSISTNET
NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY WINDS WILL SUPPORT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, IN ADDITION TO RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF THE FINGER
LAKES, A BLANKET OF CLOUDS COVER THE REGION WITH CIGS OF MVFR TO IFR.
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A PORTION OF TONIGHT EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES, WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE RAIN REACHING THE GENESEE VALLEY AT TIMES. THE SHOWERS MAY
REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR AT TIMES. PATCHY FOG/MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES TONIGHT AS LOW STRATUS INTERSECTS THE HILLTOPS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR/IFR IN LOW STRATUS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
IMPROVING TO VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL
PRODUCE MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
GENERALLY STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT IT WILL
BE CLOSE AT TIMES.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY,
WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND DIMINISHING. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL THEN STRENGTHEN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT,
LIKELY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON LAKE ONTARIO. CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE AS WELL THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SCA
CRITERIA BEING MET DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...EAJ/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/PP
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