207
FXUS61 KBUF 140557
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
157 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A
RIDGE AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILD INTO THE REGION. A PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR INTERIOR AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS CLEAR EARLIER. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TODAY, FAIR DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH AND SFC LOW ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC.
INCREASING SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTH WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE.
TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AS A DRY AND WEAKLY FORCED COLD FRONT TRACKS TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VALLEY FOG TONIGHT, BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME INCREASED WINDS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL.
WINDS WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ON AND CLOSER TO THE LAKES BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT WITH CAA AND A 30 KT LLJ CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WHILE COOL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL
KEEP OUR REGION DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW AND LIMITED LAKE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT CLOUDS EARLY
WEDNESDAY, WITH CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL THEN PREVAIL FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL DELIVER A SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FROST IS LIKELY
INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS, WITH SOME 20S IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE PATTERN WILL BECOME QUITE AMPLIFIED ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BY NEXT
WEEKEND, ALLOWING A DEEP TROUGH TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WHILE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION, THE FINER SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A
SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MAY PARTIALLY PHASE WITH THE
DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH AND SUPPORT A STRONGER SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, WHICH WOULD BRING GREATER IMPACTS IN TERMS OF WIND AND
RAIN. LESS PHASED MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD STILL SUPPORT SOME RAIN
ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT, BUT LESS RISK OF STRONG WINDS. GIVEN
THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY, IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE A FEW DAYS BEFORE
MORE SPECIFIC IMPACTS OF RAIN AND WIND BECOME MORE CLEAR, BUT EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AT A MINIMUM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY SURGE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY JUST AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH, WITH A NOTABLE COOLING TREND THEN SETTING IN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LINGERING CLOUDS FROM A DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF
IFR CIGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY. PATCHY FOG WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER VSBYS, ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR
SOME. VSBYS WITH FOG DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TODAY, AFTER EARLY MORNING CLOUDS PUSH OUT OF THE AREA, MAINLY VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT, MAINLY VFR WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME LOWERING
CLOUD BASES TO NEAR MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL INCREASE WINDS SOME OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE LAKES.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WEAKENS
BRIEFLY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, FIRST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES,
AND THEN AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL TO REACH SCA LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE
ONTARIO, WITH THE REST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE EXPECTED TO BE
AT LEAST NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ON
LAKE ONTARIO AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE REGION WITH
A SFC HIGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A COASTAL SYSTEM TO
THE EAST. AT LEAST CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXISTS THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY, WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW
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