588
FXUS61 KBUF 141651
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1251 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT BRINGING
BACK A LAYER OF CLOUDS TO OUR REGION, BUT LINGER CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FRONT SKIES WILL CLEAR TOMORROW WITH A
CHILLIER DAY EXPECTED FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH AREAS
OF FROST FORMING AT NIGHT. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RETURNS LATER
IN THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THIS AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION, WHILE LOWER STRATUS
REMAINS STUBBORN ACROSS EASTERN ZONES BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION.
A LINE OF CLOUDS IS FOUND UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO
CANADA...AND JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO, AND THESE CLOUDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT. BRIEF CLEARING ACROSS WNY WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. DRY AIR
WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AND THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR
VERY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP OUR REGION FROST FREEZE FOR
COUNTIES STILL REMAINING IN THE GROWING SEASON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 40S, WITH THE ALLEGANY PLATEAU AND TUG HILL
PLATEAU/WESTERN ADIRONDACK FOOTHILLS DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER
30S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
BEHIND A COLD FRONT A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL REMAIN CAMPED JUST TO OUR WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOWER END LAKE CLOUDS
DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, AND SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER, BUT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
DRY AIR WILL FADE THESE CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND
MAINTAIN NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
FROST IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN COUNTIES THAT REMAIN IN THE FROST-
FREEZE PROGRAM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THURSDAY
NIGHT THE BETTER POTENTIAL OF THE TWO NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEKEND, WITH A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, AND ITS ASSOCIATED AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL COLLECT
BOTH TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH NORTHERN PACIFIC MOISTURE.
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS UPON IT. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. A MUCH MILDER AIRMASS
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD, WITH TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA REACHING +12-
13C. THIS WILL BRING HIGHS INTO WNY INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR SATURDAY
WHILE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO REMAINS IN THE MID 60S UNDER DEEPER CLOUD
COVER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WNY COULD BE WARMER IF THEY CAN BREAK OUT
INTO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...WITH RAIN SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LINGERING
INTO SUNDAY IF A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS UPON THIS FRONT. THE
GFS/ECMWF HAVE A DEEPENING LOW GOING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST THAT EVEN
WITH A LITTLE INSTABILITY THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO WESTERN NEW YORK.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS CELSIUS, AND NEAR LAKE ONTARIO BELOW ZERO. WHILE NOT COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW, THIS COOLER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM.
THERE IS STILL MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO THE FLOW DIRECTION...AND WHERE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LIES. FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE CHANCE
POPS TO COVER FOR THIS LAKE EFFECT RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LINGERING CLOUDS FROM A DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF
IFR CIGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY. PATCHY FOG WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER VSBYS, ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR
SOME. VSBYS WITH FOG DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TODAY, AFTER EARLY MORNING CLOUDS PUSH OUT OF THE AREA, MAINLY VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT, MAINLY VFR WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME LOWERING
CLOUD BASES TO NEAR MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL INCREASE WINDS SOME OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE LAKES.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...BECOMING VFR ACROSS WNY, MVFR/VFR EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS WNY.
MARINE
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, FIRST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES,
AND THEN AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL TO REACH SCA LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE
ONTARIO, WITH THE REST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE EXPECTED TO BE
AT LEAST NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ON
LAKE ONTARIO AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE REGION WITH
A SFC HIGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A COASTAL SYSTEM TO
THE EAST. AT LEAST CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXISTS THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY, WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW
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