560
FXUS61 KBUF 150629
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
229 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE AREA, WITH A SECOND ONE
CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FRONTS EXTEND
SOUTH FROM A SFC LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF BUFFALO AS THE SECOND FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE EARLIER PASSING
FRONT, COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA TODAY. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKES.
TONIGHT, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FROST ISSUES
FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKES. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN, SO SOME
FROST FORMATION MAY BE LIMITED AND/OR DELAYED. FROST ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON
CONTINUES AND AWAY FROM BODIES OF WATER (LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO & FINGER
LAKES), THESE CAN BE FOUND BELOW. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL TO THE LOW
40S FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO THURSDAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY, PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY. THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
ALLOW FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO
INCREASE WITH REGARDS TO RAIN POTENTIAL IN A STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT A MINIMUM, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE
STRONGER WARM FRONT SIGNAL VERIFY. A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE ABOVE AVERAGE
BY SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN
NY WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE WEATHER WILL TURN MORE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, WITH A DEEP TROUGH
ADVANCING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THE
GENERAL PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON, THE FINER SYNOPTIC SCALE
DETAILS ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN AND COMPLEX AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE DEEP TROUGH. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INITIAL MODERATELY
STRONG LOW CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SECONDARY LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC OR NORTHEAST BY MONDAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND SHOWERS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS
WILL GROW COLDER WITH TIME, WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCED
RAIN EAST OF THE LAKES BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS WELL IF THE INITIAL LOW TRACKING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH, BUT THE WIND FORECAST IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN THE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING AGAIN AS A SECONDARY FRONT TRACKS TOWARD THE
AREA, WITH MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. MOST OF THE TERMINALS ARE AT VFR CATS, BUT LOWERING TO MVFR
AND NEAR IFR HAS ALREADY OCCURRED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO, INCLUDING AT JHW. CIGS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL REMAIN AROUND THE HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR
RANGE. LOWEST CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER DAYBREAK BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR FOR
ALL TAF SITES CAN BE EXPECTED.
TODAY, ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR, WITH JHW RISING TO VFR CIGS AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING, MAINLY 20 KTS OR LESS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
GUSTY WINDS FOR ROC & ART.
TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EARLIER GUSTY WINDS WILL WEAKEN,
WITH WINDS REMAINING SOMEWHAT GUSTY OVER/NEAR THE LAKES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...BECOMING VFR ACROSS WNY, MVFR/VFR EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS WNY.
MARINE
THE SECOND OF TWO WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZE. EXPECT CHOPPY TO
VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OFF THE EAST
COAST. THIS HAS LED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEING ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO AS OUTLINED
BELOW, WITH NEAR SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL OF THE REMAINING WATERS,
EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF LAKE ERIE.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO
WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD,
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVE ACTION FOR THE FINISH OF THE WORK
WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ006-
010>013-019-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043-
044.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...JM
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