960
FXUS61 KBUF 152322
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
722 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING A WARM-UP AND THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COOL, NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT, BUT STAY ELEVATED NEAR THE LAKESHORES
AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A MINOR UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THESE TWO ELEMENTS WILL KEEP WEATHER SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, TO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND LOCATIONS IN
ERIE, CHAUTAUQUA, GENESEE, WYOMING, LIVINGSTON, AND OSWEGO COUNTIES.
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS (UP TO 25 MPH) IS LIKELY
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. COOL WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S, MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AWAY FROM
THE LAKES. THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF AREAS OF FROST
AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, AND ITS ASSOCIATED AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT, WHILE A DEEPENING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
WILL COLLECT BOTH TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH NORTHERN
PACIFIC MOISTURE.
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS UPON IT. THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM,
WITH A MILDER AIRMASS NOT REACHING OUR REGION TILL SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA OF NOW +10 TO +12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 60S, WITH A MILD NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
EXPECTED. LIKE-WISE THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WILL NOW FOCUS THE RAIN SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL THUNDER MORE TOWARDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A GUSTY SOUTHERLY BREEZE AHEAD
OF THE PRECIPITATION AIDING IN PUSHING TEMPERATURES EARLY INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH JUST HOW COLD WILL BE BASED IN PART UPON WHERE A CLOSED
LOW FORMS IN THE NORTHEAST...OF WHICH THE MODELS STILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES. WILL JUST LEAVE THE NBM POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL
SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW AREAWIDE VFR AND NORTHERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z
TAF CYCLE.
PATCHY LAKE CLOUDS WITH BASES 3-4KFT MAY DEVELOP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS THE
OVERHEAD AIRMASS IS VERY DRY. IF ANY DO MATERIALIZE, WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO RULE OUT SOME OCCASIONAL LOW VFR CIGS FROM KROC TO KFZY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. BECOMING VFR ACROSS WNY, MVFR/VFR EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO IN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS WNY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT CHOP WILL INCREASE ON BOTH LAKES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INCREASES AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT SLIGHTLY
COOLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO AS OUTLINED BELOW. LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN 15-20KT WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS OVER THE OTHER NEARSHORE WATERS,
THOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN AND
EASTERN ENDS OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL RELAX SOME LATER THURSDAY MORNING BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD, LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVE ACTION ARE
EXPECTED TO FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ006-
010>013-019-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...HSK/PP
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP
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