073
FXUS61 KBUF 160608
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
208 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING A WARM-UP AND THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A COOL, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SOME LAKE CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT OVERALL A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, BUT WILL FEEL A BIT
COOLER WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES LOOK LIKELY TONIGHT UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AND CANADA ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD, WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS.
A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN DRIER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT AS IT IS ALSO A BIT FARTHER NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS IT
PASSES. BUT A FEW SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDING LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CENTRAL CONUS,
A SECONDARY SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS A STRONG
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SFC LOW WILL
QUICKLY BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST TO
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/RAIN WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL WARM FROM NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY, TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY BEHIND THE PASSING WARM
FRONT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS LAKE HURON
AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY,
SHOWERS AND AT TIMES STEADY RAIN WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NY AREA. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY THE SYSTEM OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT.
FORCING WITH THE TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGES LOOKS STRONG AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR BOTH THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION AS IT STRENGTHENS AND TAKES A FAVORABLE
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH
STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL START TO WEAKEN AS
IT OCCLUDES, SO THIS WILL DETERMINE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE.
BUT OVERALL THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SOGGY AND BREEZY END TO THE
WEEKEND.
MOST OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSING SFC LOW SHOULD BE DONE BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL STILL REMAIN WITH THE TROUGH STILL OVER THE
REGION AND CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
ALLOW FOR A LAKE RESPONSE. THESE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.
DRIER WEATHER WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD AND ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
SIMILAR SETUP AS THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL
BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY AND THEN COOL TO MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AREAWIDE VFR AND NORTHERLY FLOW TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.
PATCHY LAKE CLOUDS WITH BASES 3-4KFT MAY DEVELOP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS THE
OVERHEAD AIRMASS IS VERY DRY. IF ANY DO MATERIALIZE, WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO RULE OUT SOME OCCASIONAL LOW VFR CIGS FROM KROC TO KFZY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. BECOMING VFR ACROSS WNY, MVFR/VFR EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO IN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS WNY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT CHOP WILL CONTINUE ON BOTH
LAKES TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INCREASES AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT SLIGHTLY COOLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO AS OUTLINED
BELOW.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL RELAX SOME LATER TODAY BUT REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD, LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVE ACTION ARE
EXPECTED TO FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ006-010>013-
019-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043-
044.
SYNOPSIS...SW/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...PP/TMA
MARINE...PP/TMA
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