771
FXUS61 KBUF 161851
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
251 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL THEN ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND AND LAST
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK WITH TWO SYSTEMS APPROACHING AND RIDING
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, EXPECT MUCH NEEDED RAIN THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS
SUPPORTING THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A COOL NORTHERLY BREEZE SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES TO
BOTTOM OUT QUICKLY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ALL IN
ALL, WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES EAST OVERHEAD OF NEW YORK STATE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD OF THE REGION AND NORTHEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES, ITS WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES, THOUGH REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THE TRACK REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA, A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW, WILL DRAG ITS POTENT COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE FRONT, A SECONDARY LOW WILL
FORM ALONG THE FRONT, NEAR/OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS SECONDARY LOW STRENGTHENS, IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION, EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS/RAIN TO EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
ALONG WITH THE RAIN, SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE SOME, THOUGH LIMITED AMOUNT OF SHEAR
WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS A
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM THE RAINFALL, SHOULD NOTE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION. WHILE THE TRACK OF THE LOW,
THIS MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER NORTHWEST OF THE AREA,
SUPPORTING LOWER WINDS, A SLIGHT SHIFT EASTWARD WOULD BRING BRISKER
WINDS. HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM WEAKENS DURING THE OCCLUSION PROCESS,
WILL ALSO PLAY A MONUMENTAL ROLE ON HOW BLUSTERY OF A DAY IT WILL BE
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS THE LOW EXITS NORTHEAST, A TERTIARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
EITHER OVERHEAD OF THE REGION OR OVER PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY. OVERALL, COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT LINGERING
SHOWERS TO PERSIST FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LAKES MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE
RESPONSE.
BRIEF RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, SUPPORTING A VERY BRIEF TIMEFRAME OF
DRY WEATHER.
THE NEXT SYSTEM, WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL REGION WIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND OVERHEAD FRIDAY, CONTINUING TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. BECOMING VFR ACROSS WNY, MVFR/VFR EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO IN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS WNY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO
BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD, LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVE ACTION ARE
EXPECTED TO FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ001>006-
010>014-019-085.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ/PP/TMA
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