604
FXUS61 KBUF 170557
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
157 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. FOLLOWING A MAINLY
QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND, ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ARRIVE AS TWO SLOW-
MOVING SYSTEMS BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUTS OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS, AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK, BUT LIKELY JUST LOOKING AT SOME
VIRGA WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AT LOWER LEVELS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.
PROBABILITIES FOR A FEW SHOWERS INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
TONIGHT, AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ALONG WITH SOME WEAK LIFT
AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO SATURDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, ITS WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND LOWER GREAT LAKES, THOUGH REMAIN NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THE TRACK
REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA, A FEW STRAY SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW, WILL DRAG ITS POTENT COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE FRONT, A SECONDARY LOW WILL
FORM ALONG THE FRONT, NEAR/OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS SECONDARY LOW STRENGTHENS, IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION, EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS/RAIN TO EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
ALONG WITH THE RAIN, SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME, THOUGH LIMITED AMOUNT OF
SHEAR WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS
A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SYSTEM AND ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES, RESULTING IN THE BULK OF THE RAIN
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR WNY & THE EVENING FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY.
ASIDE FROM THE RAINFALL, SHOULD NOTE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TRACK FURTHER NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, SUPPORTING LOWER WINDS, A
SLIGHT SHIFT EASTWARD WOULD BRING BRISKER WINDS. HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS DURING THE OCCLUSION PROCESS, WILL ALSO PLAY A MONUMENTAL
ROLE ON HOW BLUSTERY OF A DAY IT WILL BE SUNDAY.
AS THE LOW EXITS NORTHEAST, A TERTIARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
EITHER OVERHEAD OF THE REGION OR OVER PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY. OVERALL, COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT LINGERING
SHOWERS TO PERSIST FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LAKES MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE
RESPONSE.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY, BEHIND THE PASSING WARM FRONT WILL WARM
TO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR WNY AND TO THE MID 60S FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN WARM
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE MID 70S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF FROPA, AND IF IT ENDS UP
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION A BIT EARLIER, THEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WNY. MONDAY, BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BACK TO NEAR NORMAL, IN THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60 FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
BRIEF RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, SUPPORTING A VERY BRIEF
TIMEFRAME OF DRY WEATHER.
A FEW TROUGHS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE COOLER NATURE OF THE
PASSING TROUGHS, SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE LAKE ENHANCED DOWNWIND OF BOTH
LAKES AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. MID AND AND UPPER LEVEL DECKS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN
AND LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...VFR/ISOLATED MVFR WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE ACROSS WNY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVE ACTION EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST. A GENTLE TO MODERATE, MAINLY
OFFSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, WITH WINDS
AND WAVES REMAINING BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.
WINDS WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, WITH MAINLY FRESH TO STRONG
VARYING SOUTHERLY THROUGH WESTERLY BREEZES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ001>006-
010>014-019-085.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ/SW
LONG TERM...EAJ/SW
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/TMA
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