731
FXUS61 KBUF 180029
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
829 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES WITH A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY AND WARM SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COMPLEX
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE LOWER LAKES. ACTIVE
WEATHER THEN RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED RAINFALL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
SFC ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MANITOBA WITH ITS WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. AS
THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY TRAVERSES WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY
TONIGHT, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL WORK IN FROM NW-SE INTO THE
REGION. THAT BEING SAID...A VERY DRY LAYER FROM 900-850MB WILL KEEP
OR LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNTIL IT CAN SATURATE. EVEN SO...WE ARE
ONLY LOOKING AT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST FOR THOSE
LOCALES THAT DO SEE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
WARM AND MAINLY DRY SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. INFACT...WE SHOULD SEE SOME MEASURE OF
SUNSHINE BREAK OUT AND THEN WINDS KICK UP A BIT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
MPH IN SPOTS. WE WILL 'LIKELY' SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S ALONG THE LAKE
PLAINS AND GENESEE VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...MERCURY READINGS WILL EASILY
CLIMB INTO THE 60S, EXCEPT ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE IT WILL BE
COOLER WITH 50S TO LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW STRENGTHENS, IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION, EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS/RAIN TO EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
ALONG WITH THE RAIN, SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME, THOUGH LIMITED AMOUNT OF
SHEAR WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS
A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SYSTEM AND ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES, RESULTING IN THE BULK OF THE RAIN
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR WNY & THE EVENING FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY.
ASIDE FROM THE RAINFALL, SHOULD NOTE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TRACK FURTHER NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, SUPPORTING LOWER WINDS, A
SLIGHT SHIFT EASTWARD WOULD BRING BRISKER WINDS. HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS DURING THE OCCLUSION PROCESS, WILL ALSO PLAY A MONUMENTAL
ROLE ON HOW BLUSTERY OF A DAY IT WILL BE SUNDAY.
AS THE LOW EXITS NORTHEAST, A TERTIARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
EITHER OVERHEAD OF THE REGION OR OVER PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY. OVERALL, COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT LINGERING
SHOWERS TO PERSIST FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LAKES MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE
RESPONSE.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY, BEHIND THE PASSING WARM FRONT WILL WARM
TO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR WNY AND TO THE MID 60S FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN WARM
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE MID 70S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF FROPA, AND IF IT ENDS UP
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION A BIT EARLIER, THEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WNY. MONDAY, BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BACK TO NEAR NORMAL, IN THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60 FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
BRIEF RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, SUPPORTING A VERY BRIEF
TIMEFRAME OF DRY WEATHER.
A FEW TROUGHS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE COOLER NATURE OF THE
PASSING TROUGHS, SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE LAKE ENHANCED DOWNWIND OF BOTH
LAKES AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
AREA TERMINALS.
SHOWERS DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN DRY WEATHER RESUMES
WITH VFR.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO
EAST.
SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
ACROSS WNY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH MINIMAL WAVE ACTION TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ON AREA LAKES.
WINDS STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IT WILL PRODUCE
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT WILL SEND THE HIGHER WAVE ACTION
INTO THE OPEN WATERS TOWARDS CANADA. THAT SAID...SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL WE COULD SEE LOW
END GALE FORCE WINDS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF
TO OUR EAST MONDAY BUT CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ON AREA LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR/EAJ
NEAR TERM...AR/EAJ
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR/EAJ
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